I decided to split off my postings of economic links from Jim's Thoughts, so that I can get that topic back to what it was intended to be, a place for me to post trading ideas and thoughts I had that I felt could be of interest to the readers.

This topic is where I will post links to various economic articles, for those that find them interesting. If you want to read (or post) articles about the unfolding debaucle, this is the place to look. If you are a short-term daytrader or swing trader and have zero interest in the economy, you can now just read Jim's Thoughts and not have to wade through this type of dicussion.

At best I think this material only has a direct effect on longer-term plays, the bigger swings that make up the major legs of the bull and bear markets. I follow this stuff for that reason, and because I want to have a handle on things, if that is even possible in this era of lies and deception, so that I can make decisions on life issues.

For example, as I posted in the commentary on the website and discussed with many people well in advance, this was something that wasn't hard to see coming. I saw many people who told me as late as Oct 2007 that 'this thing is about to 'break out' to the upside, and that Dow 20,000, and then much higher, was 'just around the corner' '. The type of articles I am posting discuss the type of information that helped me form the viewpoints I had back then.

If this is far from over, as I suspect, we are in a similar postion now as back then. With the rally that is unfolding right now the talk is the bull is back, the bottom is in, and we are set. I'm not so sure. So, I try to weigh up all the factors and not get too sucked in by the hype. To that end, I will post things here I find interesting.

Well, M, that surely is one possibility that I am looking at. But I've been doing a lot of intermarket dynamics work, and covered that extensively with a student just minutes ago, and this thing is at the most critical juncture right here I have seen since the bear started. I know about everyone is calling for higher levels (and that is one reason why I think we may not see them), but all the currencies, crude, treasuries, the market, it's all here right now. If rates can get back up over that multi-decade TL just over 4.5% we may see some serious things happen. That may make it clear a multi-decade secular rate rising trend is in place, and that would go along with the 'hyperinflation' scenario. If they lose control of rates, which the bond vigilantes may force upon them, all that manipulation is shot.

I was just reading how the currency and bond markets are just too big for any long-term manipulation, but the stock market is small by comparison. It can easily be manipulated, and I believe it has been. They manipulate that because they can, and have to have something showing positive signs. But there are so many things here pointing to a change they may not be able to keep it up much longer. If we see any repatriation in treasuries, they will lose control in a heartbeat. If that huge appetite for treasuries slows, they are dead meat.

Lastly, I was looking at Bernie Schaeffer's Gamma adjusted put/call ratio. I can't explain it all here, but for those that want to follow up on this, if you like options, it's way cool. Basically it weights the high gamma options, the ones that really count, more in the put/call ratio. That thing just took a monster dive to big-time news lows, way below previous lows from previous intermediate tops. In other words, it is a super-monster, big, big time sell signal (it works, the theme goes, because those options provide resistance). Who knows, lately many of these sentiment indices haven't played out at all. Here's a link explaining all this for those of you who like options like I do:

http://www.schaeffersresearch.com/commentary/observations.aspx?ID=93386&obspage=2

Everything you say makes a great deal of sense and I would not disagree one bit, but I have not seen anything "rational' occur in a long time and I guess that's my point...
I really thing they might be able to pull it off. Of course none of this has got anything to do with our work as traders.

Well, I agree they may pull it off, but most or all empires have fallen when they tried to pull it off and they just pushed the envelope too far. They all pushed and pushed until they pushed too far. Maybe this one is too far. If not, they learned the boundary was further than we all thought possible. But it isn't a done deal in my opinion, the jury is still out, and I think what will happen is the gov debt bubble I talked about in my latest commentary will let them keep it afloat for a bit longer, but then it's going to go. The thing about bubbles is that once they pop there is no control possible at all from any source. I think it will be the same here, some day.

All true and we could go on about this forever. I am in your camp as far as all this is concerned, but if this really was the 'bottom' and it just kept going wouldn't it be an unprecedented, even 'black swan' type scenario?
Like you said earlier, no bull market ever started like this and certainly not led by sectors that got killed in the bear (banking, homebuilders etc...)
I pity the people who look at this 'we-are-back-all-is-well-the-bear-is-over' scenario as a totally predictable and expected outcome. To me it would be unprecedented, BUT this is exactly what calculated manipulation does. In reality, the money that we hold in our hands today is fantasy money, printed based on NOTHING. That's when I ask myself: Is the way the markets are manipulated any different? Fantasy.

In The News Today
Posted: Jun 07 2009 By: Jim Sinclair Post Edited: June 7, 2009 at 10:12 pm

Filed under: In The News

Dear CIGAs,

Check out the top twelve indicators that the economy is bad:

12. CEO’s are now playing miniature golf.
11. I got a pre-declined credit card in the mail.
10. I went to buy a toaster oven and they gave me a bank.
9. Hotwheels and Matchbox car companies are now trading higher than GM in the stock market.
8. Obama met with small businesses - GE, Pfizer, Chrysler, Citigroup and GM, to discuss the Stimulus Package.
7. McDonalds is selling the 1/4 ouncer.
6. People in Beverly Hills fired their nannies and are learning their children’s names.
5. The most highly-paid job is now jury duty.
4. People in Africa are donating money to Americans. Mothers in Ethiopia are telling their kids, “finish your plate; do you know how many kids are starving inAmerica?”
3. Motel Six won’t leave the lights on.
2. The Mafia is laying off judges.

And my most favorite indicator of all.
1. If the bank returns your check marked as “insufficient funds,” you have to call them and ask if they meant you or them.

Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

Word!

LOL that's hilarious, Duane. We could use some humour in here.It's been so lifeless in here lately.

Very funny one, Duane. An A+.

I really like this one. I've been following that U-6 rate for awhile.

http://www.nakedhedgefund.com/finance/unemployment-rate-flowchart/

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/IMF-says-worst-not-rb-15522702.html

The thing I thought was funny was how this gloomy report ends with the guy saying they've verified the markets have bottomed out. Hmmm, I'm not sure how they've verified that? I guess they didn't look at a chart right after 1929? Shows that a new low is simply not a possible consideration, likely among almost everyone. We all know how the market likes to shock the greatest number of people it can. I am convinced a new low would do that.

I forgot, I do have another hero to go with Ron Paul and David Stockman, and that's Nigel Farage. Here's his latest:

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-04-17/farage-unleashed-you-are-common-criminals