I decided to split off my postings of economic links from Jim's Thoughts, so that I can get that topic back to what it was intended to be, a place for me to post trading ideas and thoughts I had that I felt could be of interest to the readers.

This topic is where I will post links to various economic articles, for those that find them interesting. If you want to read (or post) articles about the unfolding debaucle, this is the place to look. If you are a short-term daytrader or swing trader and have zero interest in the economy, you can now just read Jim's Thoughts and not have to wade through this type of dicussion.

At best I think this material only has a direct effect on longer-term plays, the bigger swings that make up the major legs of the bull and bear markets. I follow this stuff for that reason, and because I want to have a handle on things, if that is even possible in this era of lies and deception, so that I can make decisions on life issues.

For example, as I posted in the commentary on the website and discussed with many people well in advance, this was something that wasn't hard to see coming. I saw many people who told me as late as Oct 2007 that 'this thing is about to 'break out' to the upside, and that Dow 20,000, and then much higher, was 'just around the corner' '. The type of articles I am posting discuss the type of information that helped me form the viewpoints I had back then.

If this is far from over, as I suspect, we are in a similar postion now as back then. With the rally that is unfolding right now the talk is the bull is back, the bottom is in, and we are set. I'm not so sure. So, I try to weigh up all the factors and not get too sucked in by the hype. To that end, I will post things here I find interesting.

...And a Happy New Year to you too Jim...

Yeah, yeah, you'll all thank me when it's over.

I tend to think this is just about exactly right (except the buying opportunity of a lifetime coming in 2010 part):

http://www.investorsinsight.com/blogs/john_mauldins_outside_the_box/archive/2010/01/04/global-bear-rally-of-2009-will-end-with-japan.aspx

As I keep saying, we are in inning three. No way, no how the fiddler is not going to be paid. This is the calm before the storm, or more accurately, we are in the eye of the storm, thinking it is over. But everything that isn't toppled is weakened from the first wave, and when the second wave hits, it's going to be mayhem.

It kind of reminds me of the story about the Ferryman, taking you to the other side. The boat is a rickety old canoe type thing, and the hooded figure who shows up in the darkness and fog is actually a skeleton, the Grim Reaper himself. Let me just ask what happens to anyone who gets half-way across, and with a cocky, arrogent attitude tells the Ferryman he isn't going to get paid, he's not going to get his due. Yeah, you all know what happens.

You will pay your dues one way or another. You'll pay them straight up (we, as M has so clearly pointed out, already had that chance and we blew it), or you'll pay them later. But just like that old TV commercial about repairs to your car: "You can pay me now, or you can pay me later..." And you know later is a lot more than now plus interest. Just like the dentist. Get ready. In my opinion, there is no force on earth that can stop the next impending catastrophe. It's just not mathematically possible.

Boy, when that CRE hits, it could be ugly:

http://www.investorsinsight.com/blogs/john_mauldins_outside_the_box/archive/2010/01/25/an-insider-s-view-of-the-real-estate-train-wreck2.aspx

On the other hand, they may 'extend and pretend' and basically nationalize commercial RE just like they did with family housing and the banking system. People just don't see the danger we are in with banks with all these loans and, like Japan, they just pretend they don't exist, all the while paying out record bonuses and making 'record' profits. It just too sick and twisted to even think about...

This one is also a good read:

http://www.investorsinsight.com/blogs/thoughts_from_the_frontline/archive/2010/01/29/this-time-is-different.aspx

Sounds remarkably similar to the U.S., and to many areas of Europe.

http://www.henrymakow.com/nwo_bitch_--_young_greek_conte.html

It's amazing how even learned people are totally sticking their heads in the sand. Then when it hits, they will be totally 'surprised'. One of the biggest downfalls to humanity, to me, is that they are 'optimistic'. There is nothing wrong, in my opinion, in working for a better situation, and perhaps believing that improvement is possible, but blind optimism, the 'normal' human state, I think, can be extraordinarily destructive when we find ourselves in a situation like today. It forces (allows) politicians to keep doing the worst possible thing that can be done, to appease the optimists in the short term. Then when the inevitable must happen, it is so horrific it changes history in a major way. Just look at what not stopping Hitler early did. The optimists thought he was going to be just fine... Thanks, Neville.

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/albert-edwards-500-net-liabilities-gdp-it-too-late-prevent-collapse-g-7-greece-irrelevant-we

How much do you want to bet they choose option #4?

http://www.investorsinsight.com/blogs/thoughts_from_the_frontline/archive/2010/02/12/between-dire-and-disastrous.aspx

The real problem is that Greece is just the tip of the iceberg, and once a contagion starts it feeds on itself. As one defaults, those that are defaulted on are now in worse shape, they default, and so on. Or, if it isn't defaults, then it's bailouts, and the 'more' that is needed as they all line up for handouts ultimately comes from the U.S. taxpayer (via the IMF). Once the U.S. goes past the tipping point, it's game over. There is just sooooooo much being hidden, you know the problems are way worse than we know about. This is all going to end badly, watch and see...

Not that anyone in here even cares about Jim's crazy economic posts, but here's a simplified synopsis I pretty much agree with 100%:

http://www.minyanville.com/businessmarkets/articles/america-money-printing-national-debt-petroleum/2/24/2010/id/26982?page=full

It's only a matter of when, in my opinion:

http://www.xtrenders.com/2010/02/there-is-train-on-other-end-of-tunnel.html

I forgot, I do have another hero to go with Ron Paul and David Stockman, and that's Nigel Farage. Here's his latest:

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-04-17/farage-unleashed-you-are-common-criminals