Jim suggested to take a look at daily charts of some secondary indexes and here is my current $RUT chart:



The green ML of a set based on big bearish 3D happens to be also a neckline of a classic head and shoulders. If bulls would not be able to defend this line next week, then a move to the lower ML should follow. This would also be a perfect fulfillment of a successful H&S pattern.
It is all the more interesting as this big bearish 3D fell dead on at the upper ML of a quite important set:

in a nutshell ... if all the geometry of hundreds of stocks kicked in here.. then i would expect a move to the 114 spx area.not a forcast.. just an adding up....

I'm long side bias into GLOBEX here. Understand, I am talking very short term here, for a GLOBEX 'daytrade'. If it moves, I'd be looking to stay with that bias until it stops moving. Long until wrong, as they say.

Originally posted by jimkane

It hit 75.25 and is bouncing. Is this it? Or another bounce they'll sell? And with rollover, and the Sept contract being 5.50 lower, that skews the continuous contract chart quite a bit. So, how to handle that? There isn't a good answer. I'll still chart the June contract on the higher timeframe for awhile.

Originally posted by jimkane

If they drop it, I'm watching 73.50-75, and 71.50, give or take.

I agree 1,000% percent, roofer, and I've only been looking at puts as this has unfolded, I haven't even entertained a single potential call play. I'm even ready to short something like CMG, and almost did over the last few days (I chickened out..., shorting a monster stock at all time highs and all not being my style). I think I'm going to be sorry I didn't, as the best chance may be past now.

One look at your SPY chart and that 114 looks like it is calling out to it. It's all part of the 'beg for QE3' plan, leading up to the August Jackson Hole speech. Just like last year. That's my thinking, anyway. Great posts and comments, roofer. I'm of the opinion that holding puts from earlier, even if it bounces, is the best plan. We'll see.

And I agree, everyone I see is saying bounce, and I'm thinking like you, collapse. That's why even intraday I was thinking it would rise, I think they would want to try to trap all those that think bounce, then kill them. Straight down, when so many fresh suckers are ready to bet on a substantial bounce here, how could they not take advantage of that? Just a thought.

Originally posted by roofer

in a nutshell ... if all the geometry of hundreds of stocks kicked in here.. then i would expect a move to the 114 spx area.not a forcast.. just an adding up....

In the heat of battle, I was seeing both bull abcd's and bear abcd's.
At day's end, it seems obvious that I should lean only one way.
I'm still too quick to see the countertrend trade. HTF charts had some support for a turn up so I had some justification but I really don't need any to be contrary.

The last bear abcd doesn't look like it reached target but the rise is still in the KZ so I won't call it a failure just yet.

TNA 5 min (3X small cap bull)

TNA 30 min
The gap schiff and the other overlapping schiff is still containing the action.

ches.. though jim and i have different approaches.... i think that we would agree that having a target is part of the trade in terms of how much is your initial risk...each of my last 3 trades in UCO was triggered by.886 on gap on 5 at geometry... WITH A LINE TARGET ALREADY IN PLACE TO JUDGE MY RISK.... at least for me, that is important...over and over, i want to trade predefined setup at geometry with a target to measure initial risk.

Thanks, roofer. I had noticed that on your charts. It is my goal to be able to do that too. But I can't do it yet because I haven't collected the thousands of examples that you have to know what lines will work. The only one I feel a little confident of is your red line/green set. I do like your 1:4 calculation to set your risk when going for the median line target.

Originally posted by roofer

ches.. though jim and i have different approaches.... i think that we would agree that having a target is part of the trade in terms of how much is your initial risk...each of my last 3 trades in UCO was triggered by.886 on gap on 5 at geometry... WITH A LINE TARGET ALREADY IN PLACE TO JUDGE MY RISK.... at least for me, that is important...over and over, i want to trade predefined setup at geometry with a target to measure initial risk.

I think it makes sense to move to September contract for short term purposes:

Longer term there is no change in the overall picture:

$RUT might suggest that a move to the above spot in ES is very possible:

it might have to, and we'll find out soon

Originally posted by tx_ches

I could certainly see it going lower though.