Jim suggested to take a look at daily charts of some secondary indexes and here is my current $RUT chart:



The green ML of a set based on big bearish 3D happens to be also a neckline of a classic head and shoulders. If bulls would not be able to defend this line next week, then a move to the lower ML should follow. This would also be a perfect fulfillment of a successful H&S pattern.
It is all the more interesting as this big bearish 3D fell dead on at the upper ML of a quite important set:

first high stopped at the low from wednesday....what a game

Originally posted by jimkane

Look at this ABCD!

and 447 again just there off the pullback area...

75 next area I'm watching.

danger zone.....tap, tap

abcd again


unless they just tank it off the bearish abcd just hit.....sorry, this one

amazing really....they brought it all the way back down to the 886....

I couldn't post any more, once I saw this start to fail shy of that 75, I was super-busy getting ready for a possible trade setup. It gave a bearish 'W2' ABCD at an .886, at 15:18. The rest is history. Amazing how relentless the sellers are.

If this isn't a 'retest' of this major area, this thing could be in trouble. Like I said, though, that 46-47 area is really intriguing, so that may be the next stop.

In beefing up my work I see now that the .447 at 73.75 was lined up with the key lines, and that 75 wasn't really destined to have high odds of playing out. It's only 1.25 points, but even so it was clear I should have been focusing on 73.75 area instead. The 1.618 ext ret off that flat going into the area was enough to finish it off. I expected a blowoff move, and hence that fit with overshooting 73.75 to get to 75. In this case the action off 73.75 tipped me off, but if it didn't give a setup off a 'W2' and sold directly off, and one wasn't ready at 73.75, it could have been a problem.

This is another case of my work not being the very best it could have been. It was good, I think, and I had the area pinpointed, but it wasn't 100%. I share this to give people things to work on (see how much you can find at 73.75 and 75, and so on), and also to show the level I try to operate on, and how at that level near perfection in technique is required to optimize the areas. I rarely reach a level of performance that satisfies me, being such a perfectionist.

again .... people i respect are SO SURE. of where and when a turn is coming..yet i have hundreds of charts of individual stocks that need big moves down to complete their geometry....i am looking for all in based on every chart i have having reached it's downside target...geez i just dont see it....

roofer, can you clarify a bit, I'm not sure what you mean. You are looking for all in long after this drops to the much lower level that completes the geometry? Or all in if you get any short setups, for the move down to completion? You say you just don't see it, you mean what everyone is saying, that we go up in here?

Today we got the move directly to my next area, a small bounce, then a completing move 'retest', and it couldn't even handle the very first area once the bigger bounce started. After being completely long-side bias off that I was quick to switch right back to short-side bias, and that was very-short-term intraday. This 'failure' to follow through past the first area was a profoundly critical sign, I think.

Although, as I mentioned, this could be a 're-retest' if you will of this key area, I think the least it will likely do is move down to 1246-47, which is a monster area. It is also the level of the Mar low, which everyone is watching. I think the only difference in our viewpoints is that I still think they want to trap some people before they drop it, with some kind of bounce that looks like the reversal everyone is expecting. That 1246-47 near the Mar low would suck everyone in, the blogs would be raging that was it...

On the other hand, given that 'they' are now on the ropes, without Fed support, 'they' are playing the 'only the first ones out the door keep any profit' game, and 'they' may care less about trapping anyone or playing any usual games, and about nothing but getting out before they get crushed. If so, this may be straight down to that SPY 114 in a flash, no pullbacks at all.

Originally posted by roofer

again .... people i respect are SO SURE. of where and when a turn is coming..yet i have hundreds of charts of individual stocks that need big moves down to complete their geometry....i am looking for all in based on every chart i have having reached it's downside target...geez i just dont see it....

it might have to, and we'll find out soon

Originally posted by tx_ches

I could certainly see it going lower though.