Thanks for opening this Forum to your students and giving us an opportunity to show our charts and share our ideas.
Here is a chart of todays ABCD's in the russell. I will post a context chart later. Today was one of those days where the market changes direction on Jim's unique Fib numbers, Had you been trading with standard fib numbers you may not have noticed these PTA's. Is it me or is .564 becomming more and more prevalent?
I didn't think you did anything wrong. I just figured i'd post them all in one chart. Maybe that's not what Jim was looking for anyway.
DU
Duane
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quote:Originally posted by jimkane
Want some real fun? Show yesterday's and today's action with the respective daily pivots. This is something, along with the opening price, that I have on my chart every day.
What is the signifigance of the open and how do you use it in your intraday trading?
The price action seems to gravitate to or hover around the pivot. On Wed and Thur when price opened considerable below the pivot, price ran to the pivot on both days. When price opened near the pivot on friday, price made a move away from the pivot.
DU
Duane
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Ok I see the pivot bounce on Thur, but cannot see it on wed and fri, does anyone know what Jim is looking at?
Click image for original size
MR
mreiserer
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Duane,
The one thing that sticks out to me is how well the pivots acted as support and resistance and kept price within its ranges before breaking out.
JI
jimkane
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(Edited )
On Wed it spent almost the entire day oscillating around the pivot. Unless that is a coincidence, this number is an important thing to see ahead of time. On Friday, it did the same thing in the AM, testing from below and then above. The pivot can act as a 'balance point'. Regardless of how it is used, it plays a role in almost every day except days that just run away from the pivot. I also notice that the pivot, calculated at day's end, very, very frequently coincides with an obvious .382 or .382 area from that day's action. Point is, I find it a critical piece of data that I want on my chart.
Like this little observation that is kind of known, and kind of not known. In other words, if I tell this to someone they say they know this, yet you rarely hear it, or see people factoring this in. Look at some charts and see if this isn't a solid observation. The high or low of the day is frequently put in in the first 20-30 minutes of the day. Maybe it's in the first hour. You won't know ahead of time if it is the high or low that will be forming, but look at the charts and see if it isn't the case most days. Don't ask me how to use that. You have your potential scenarios laid out, you are looking at things unfolding, no way this information can't play a role. I'm always thinking 'Is this the high, or low, for the day, right there, and if so, how does that fit my scenarios and 'context'?' It's just thinking, using the clues that are right there every day.
P.S. This held true for every day on the above Russell chart.
BB
BBJ
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From a MP source based on current data :
“The high or low of the day is formed in the first thirty minutes of trading 42% of the time.
The high or low of the day is formed in the first sixty-minutes of trading 65% of the time.
Two of the Key Reference Areas for each day are the high and the low of the previous
day. Market Development across all time frames is dominated by rotation (Balance).
Trends (Imbalance) account for the net change in price level, but account for the least
amount of time spent trading.”
Balance = f.ex. action around the daily pivot.
First 60 mins (initial balance) is very important in MP and in recent times even first 90 mins.
Many professionals look at these seemingly obvious reference points to categorize the market data. Wyckoff wrote about some of this in 1930’s….
JI
jimkane
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I am surprised their data shows the % so much less than what I was thinking, though. I wonder what markets, and what time period, they did this on. Maybe I'm just thinking about the Russell too much. I wonder what its current %'s are. As far as the previous day's high and low, that goes without saying, and I always have two heavy lines on my charts for those. I assumed everyone did, too, but if not, you want those, for sure. I mostly do all this, and the opening price, because so many watch it.
PI
pinkf64
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Jim, re the pivots. Did you consider hlc/3 Vs hlcoo/4. On non-gap days it doesn't matter. On gap days the hlcoo/4 will factor in the gap, thus, not just yesterday's data, but also todays open. Do you prefer hlc/3 as it is more common, thus self fulfilling?
RO
roofer
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bbj...do you have figures based on days that open on a gap.? i believe the percentages are even higher... that is why i believe gap opening days are qualitatively different...in my own sample study back in 2001, regardless of whether it gapped up or down . the high or low extreme in price was made in the first hour greater than 80% of time... that sam-pling was confirmed by the guy from my area who happened to write the gap trading strategy section in stockcharts.com..
BB
BBJ
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quote:Originally posted by jimkane
I am surprised their data shows the % so much less than what I was thinking, though. I wonder what markets, and what time period, they did this on. Maybe I'm just thinking about the Russell too much. I wonder what its current %'s are. As far as the previous day's high and low, that goes without saying, and I always have two heavy lines on my charts for those. I assumed everyone did, too, but if not, you want those, for sure. I mostly do all this, and the opening price, because so many watch it.
