Hi Jim,

Thanks for opening this Forum to your students and giving us an opportunity to show our charts and share our ideas.

Here is a chart of todays ABCD's in the russell. I will post a context chart later. Today was one of those days where the market changes direction on Jim's unique Fib numbers, Had you been trading with standard fib numbers you may not have noticed these PTA's. Is it me or is .564 becomming more and more prevalent?

Legendary Investors on waiting:

Wait for the fat pitch. - Warren Buffett: comparing investing to a baseball game where you can wait endlessly for the perfect pitch before you swing.

I only go to work on the days that make sense to go to work...And I really do something on that day. But you go to work and you do something every day and you don't realize when it's a special day. - George Soros talking to Byron Wien

His first conclusion was that he won when all the factors were in his favor, when he was patient and waited for all the ducks to line up in a row. - from Jesse Livermore, Worlds Greatest Stock Trader

Profits can be made safely only when the opportunity is available and not just because they happen to be desired or needed. ...Willingness and ability to hold funds uninvested while awaiting real opportunities is a key to success in the battle for investment survival.- Gerald Loeb

You make money on wall street by being very selective and being patient, waiting for those opportunities that are irresistible, where the percentages are very heavily in your favor.- Seth Glickenhaus

Unless, however, we see a very high probability of at least 10 percent pretax returns (which translate to 6 percent to 7 percent after corporate tax), we will sit on the sidelines. With short-term money returning less than 1 percent after-tax, sitting it out is no fun. But occasionally successful investing requires inactivity.- Warren Buffett

Many equity investors feel compelled to remain 100% invested in equities at all times. Bond investors are often similarly constrained. We strongly believe that this mentality leads to pursuit of relative rather than absolute investment returns, a direction we certainly want to avoid...A smaller pool of funds seeking to avoid meaningful declines in market value at every point in time and seeking more aggressive return objectives cannot afford to be fully invested in the absence of attractive opportunities. – Seth Klarman

Empty your mind, be formless, shapeless--like water. Now you put water into a cup, it becomes the cup, You put water into a bottle, it becomes the bottle, You put it in a teapot, it becomes the teapot. Now water can flow or it can crash! Be water my friend. - Bruce Lee. Ok, this quote comes from the world of martial arts, but the lesson transcends mere combat.

It's falling, and it can't get up...

That was a picture perfect ABCD on the tick chart.

Look at the spot where it halted. May not hold, but still fascinating.
Oh I forgot, it's all random....

It gets better. Do a set based around the April 17-18 pullback, locked at the 26th high. There is also a smaller downsloping set that I was using, and the warning line hit here, too, and the .886 from that 18th low. But I don't think this will hold. Turkey dumped 4%, and this thing is teetering from its own weight...

Well, that is some action spot, even if it doesn't hold...however the red flag for me is that it just doesn't look corrective.

Sure was a magnet.

quote:

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Originally posted by TonyC

J,
is there a good way of filtering the price action for trend 'chopiness' level.I mean a threshold limit of sort that could help define the tradability of a given trend.I've tried the 'chopiness' indicators but failed to get anything consistent...
I now mainly use a visual "scan" and assess the situation but that is still subjective to me and I end up trading the setups anyway ,even though the 'chop' is rather obvious.That's overtrading on my part, I admit, and the results are often stopouts after stopouts...not cool at all.
I wonder what method u might use in these situations,if any, to actively trade or move to the sidelines due to the choppiness of the price action.What 'tool' do u think is useful to help make a decision on that?
=)
T

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T,

I'm not J obviously, but have you investigated range or volume bars? They are an effective way of smoothing price action.Here are some links.

http://www.ensignsoftware.com/tips/tradingtips53.htm
http://www.ensignsoftware.com/tips/tradingtips49.htm

D

quote:

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Originally posted by TonyC

J,
is there a good way of filtering the price action for trend 'chopiness' level.I mean a threshold limit of sort that could help define the tradability of a given trend.I've tried the 'chopiness' indicators but failed to get anything consistent...
I now mainly use a visual "scan" and assess the situation but that is still subjective to me and I end up trading the setups anyway ,even though the 'chop' is rather obvious.That's overtrading on my part, I admit, and the results are often stopouts after stopouts...not cool at all.
I wonder what method u might use in these situations,if any, to actively trade or move to the sidelines due to the choppiness of the price action.What 'tool' do u think is useful to help make a decision on that?
=)
T

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I will get to your question, T, but this one takes some explaining, and I'm trying to find time and think of how to word it. Soon, I hope.

thankyou duane i knew it was back there somewhere...