Hi Jim,
Thanks for opening this Forum to your students and giving us an opportunity to show our charts and share our ideas.
Here is a chart of todays ABCD's in the russell. I will post a context chart later. Today was one of those days where the market changes direction on Jim's unique Fib numbers, Had you been trading with standard fib numbers you may not have noticed these PTA's. Is it me or is .564 becomming more and more prevalent?
MR
mreiserer
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It's like an unwritten law. There is no randomness in the markets. The same way there is no randomness in human nature, no matter how erratic the behavior. It all comes down to cause and effect. There is an underlying condition for everything.
JI
jimkane
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Well, that's ultimately always been my belief. But my background is mathematics, physics, and chemistry, so that would be expected.
MR
mreiserer
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quote:
Originally posted by jimkane
Well, that's ultimately always been my belief. But my background is mathematics, physics, and chemistry, so that would be expected.
All of which is a response to and interpretation of the laws of nature from which human nature is not exempt.
I often look at a chart as canvas and it's up to us what we do with it, how we perceive it, what we project into it and ultimately what we create.
JI
jimkane
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Well, I think many people, for reasons I can't comprehend, confuse randomness with lack of data and information. Once a system reaches an immense complexity, one far beyond the technology at the time (or the person's personal ability) to model, many tend to simply say it is random. As a slightly different concept, imagine if one of the top magicians of today went back to the 'ancient times'. Imagine what the people of the time would have thought of his abilities. A slew of descriptions from god-like, evil, witch (warlock for a male), supernatural, and so on, yet it would all be quite easily explained, and no laws of physics were ever violated.
Even various demonstrations and uses of radio waves would have been quite unexplainable a few hundred years ago, and I'm sure the conclusions would have been anything but scientific postulations. The market is complex, with the results the sum total of a huge number of participants, but the action people take are not coin flips, they are based on the participants goals, knowledge, and beliefs, and those are not random. Just because the system has a lot of variables, many which we have no techniques at this time to accurately measure or model doesn't therefore lead to a logical conclusion that it is all random. I'm not sure why anyone spent even thirty seconds on that idea...
Even various demonstrations and uses of radio waves would have been quite unexplainable a few hundred years ago, and I'm sure the conclusions would have been anything but scientific postulations. The market is complex, with the results the sum total of a huge number of participants, but the action people take are not coin flips, they are based on the participants goals, knowledge, and beliefs, and those are not random. Just because the system has a lot of variables, many which we have no techniques at this time to accurately measure or model doesn't therefore lead to a logical conclusion that it is all random. I'm not sure why anyone spent even thirty seconds on that idea...




