Welcome to this new thread, where we can share trading ideas and our thoughts on the Taylor Trading Technique.

Anyone with questions on TTT, this is the place.

If my count has any validity, c up to complete B could be as early as 1324(where a equals c). All prices are basis cash by the way.Ive seen some b waves peak above or below a waves in extemely bullish or bearish markets, but never wave 4s travelling into wave 1s.(for instance running corrections of an a b c down to make a minor wave 2 down before a third of a third wave up in a large third wave.)

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Originally posted by koolblue

If my count has any validity, c up to complete B could be as early as 1324(where a equals c). All prices are basis cash by the way.Ive seen some b waves peak above or below a waves in extemely bullish or bearish markets, but never wave 4s travelling into wave 1s.(for instance running corrections of an a b c down to make a minor wave 2 down before a third of a third wave up in a large third wave.)

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Hi koolblue your count is same as my big scenario that I have posted and sure is a possibility , that being said nothing also excludes the alternate wave count down that I have posted on the same chart as that's the thing with EW everything is possible at some points until the pattern unfold and invalidates some of the possible counts. What we need to keep in mind is that so far we had clear impulsive waves down but having the possibility of being in a wave C down that was correct to have impulsive move.

Anyway your views are very interesting as this is one of the possibility I had and the one I would prefer to see happen but even then I have learn over the years that nothing is 100% sure so let's wait and see as if we go below 1238.50 the bullish scenario will begin to become less attractive and could start to favor the alternate down count instead.

Thanks for your detailed analysis and feel free to add any comments as you are more then welcome in here.

That is where we are now and like I posted before that 1238.75 is a 38% retracement and the top of wave 1A so any decline below that will be considered a bearish sign.

This doesn't mean we will break the bottom at 1212.25 but if we hold we won't start in an impulsive fashion . Anyway the pattern so far looks like an ABC up instead of impulsive.

Larry,

Is there a break of a certain number before a confirmation of 3 of 3 down started. I think you previously mentioned 1217? Thanks.

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Originally posted by mucis

Larry,

Is there a break of a certain number before a confirmation of 3 of 3 down started. I think you previously mentioned 1217? Thanks.

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For the moment even if the market hasn't made a five wave up it doesn't mean that it won't go up. As of now we seem to have ABC's both ways and if ES goes lower then 1234.50 and do not break 1248 before that low then the down move from 1255 could become an impulsive wave down. We need to break that level to invalidate that scenario.

Forgot to mention that this was based on a 15 min chart.

CNBC just said with Ike coming and just a few financials in trouble, nobody is looking a the big picture. "Nobody is panicing!"

OK, the market is about to fall

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Originally posted by Larry22

[quote]Originally posted by mucis

As of now we seem to have ABC's both ways and if ES goes lower then 1234.50 and do not break 1248 before that low then the down move from 1255 could become an impulsive wave down. We need to break that level to invalidate that scenario.

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Hi Larry, I am trying to understand what you are saying. Since S&P didn't break 1234.50, and now above 1248, the Elliott wave suggests an ABC up? Thanks..

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Originally posted by spnakr007

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Originally posted by Larry22

[quote]Originally posted by mucis

As of now we seem to have ABC's both ways and if ES goes lower then 1234.50 and do not break 1248 before that low then the down move from 1255 could become an impulsive wave down. We need to break that level to invalidate that scenario.

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Hi Larry, I am trying to understand what you are saying. Since S&P didn't break 1234.50, and now above 1248, the Elliott wave suggests an ABC up? Thanks..

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Indeed that's what the pattern is showing so far, so if we don't break 1234.75 and make a new high we should then name the new leg up 3 of 3 and the current low as I write this is 1240 on the last leg down from the top of wave C so this would become wave 2B of the C leg up and the new leg up being 3.

P.S for easier labeling I will very often refer to 1A 2B and 3C as this way we always have both possible count open; correction or impulse pattern as it is only after these first 3 waves that we can conclude that it is impulsive or corrective.

Laurent

so, is the bottom line that EW is too subjective, eh ?

all these waves are making me sea sick

methinks i'll stick to pure cold facts, like the statistics in rich's ttt

gio

Laurent, Thanks!

I hope all you TTT traders had a good 2014 and I wish you all a better 2015
Richard