I thought I might try something different here, and see how it goes. It's quite difficult for me to post a lot to the various topics, especially with charts, since the method I use for posting charts is very cumbersome. Some charts can take me a half hour or more to put together. Since the charts I use for posting are not my 'working' charts, this work is duplicative.
I have various ideas and thoughts here and there about different things, and if I have a 'central clearing area' where I can just put out a sentence or two, pointing to something without doing the work, the members can do what assessment and analysis they want with the ideas, and post charts if they want, preferably to the respective areas they have for that topic. This way it would leave this topic more 'clean'. If you have a question or comment on what I was pointing out you could post that in here.
Let me know if you have any thoughts on this, or anything you think would be helpful/useful. Keep in mind I am not going to just tell you all my best setups in advance, especially if I plan to trade them, as that is not 'what I do' in here, or anywhere. I want to point out things that may need some work, and might go unnoticed otherwise, or are just of interest.
JI
jimkane
Rep: 3,058
Posts: 33,089
Now, this is a night/early AM time to watch if there ever was one. Look at the Nikkei and China right now. It will probably rally like crazy later, or once Europe opens and the manipulation rampers get scared and decide it's time to spend some taxpayer's money, but I'm not counting on it. I'm just getting ready for some volatility, and I suspect it's back again.
TO
TonyC
Rep: 99
Posts: 471
it's 3:40am in the East coast right now and the Russell futures are way down from yesterday's close,currently @820.00 and sliding even further as I type this.The ES is down 10.5points...
Very active markets in the overnight sessions right now...sleep?what is that word?...don't know anymore. lol I only need 4hours of sleep a day.By the way, I don't even drink a drop of coffee to keep awake. I had military training in the past, so sleep deprivation isn't an issue for me.I have natural insomnia,no kidding...
Looks like the gap at the US exch. open will be huge...Those manipulators are treacherous, they stab ur porfolio at night while most are asleep. Insane organized robbery but legal still...can't fight 'them' ,can't join 'them',just use 'them'...protect ur neck...
T
Very active markets in the overnight sessions right now...sleep?what is that word?...don't know anymore. lol I only need 4hours of sleep a day.By the way, I don't even drink a drop of coffee to keep awake. I had military training in the past, so sleep deprivation isn't an issue for me.I have natural insomnia,no kidding...
Looks like the gap at the US exch. open will be huge...Those manipulators are treacherous, they stab ur porfolio at night while most are asleep. Insane organized robbery but legal still...can't fight 'them' ,can't join 'them',just use 'them'...protect ur neck...
T
RO
roofer
Rep: 3,689
Posts: 3,574
the tools are clear... in the spy there is an expanded abcd setting up in the classic kane manner that will complete at the lower // of the countertrend set at retrace fib confluent with retest of the feb high...
JI
jimkane
Rep: 3,058
Posts: 33,089
Curious, the 1.272 of the entire 'bear market' is at 12,989, and the 1.272 of this last 'correction' is at 13,028. Is unlucky 13 it, the end, as Geo keeps watching for?
RO
roofer
Rep: 3,689
Posts: 3,574
jim- i think it is more accurate to say i am always watching...always using the tools to weigh the bullish and bearish cases... and if i am trading at the extremes and the trade goes my way, your concept of abcd continuation is the best i know to tell me to abandon the trade.i am always extra focused when the news sets up a completion based on the tools to trade against the news...thus the news gave us exactly what we wanted on thursday morning. gap opening to complete pattern with spy, dia, qqqq ALL at lines...note i did not included iwm... i think the divergence has begun and i look to trade it without confirmation.... you should have heard the hoots and hollers when i shorted gold and sliver at the extremes in late feb based on the tools.... they thought iwas out of my mind when i stood up in the trading room when all the news was about how high oil was going and i said''even i can not believe it, but based on my tools the move in oil is over for now and i am short.''our tools were right...
you have always spoken about being very careful about trading a '' too perfect pattern''.and every day when i update my $XBD chart it is on my mind... it IS too perfect in an elliot sense... the run to the top was perfect in every way.. EVERY WAY!... and the first sell off was a clear 5 waves down... not how corrections end... i have been patiently waiting for the abcd retrace or ABC in elliot terms...even now it is perfect... C waves are always the most dynamic and they have gunned the brokers the last few days, breaking the ''too perfect'' pattern in MER along the way..it was wrong for me to not trust the lines and look for the turn at the.886 in GS when the lines said double top...so if the pattern works, it will catch most traders off guard... if it fails the breaking of the pattern will be explosive and i will join the mania.
you have always spoken about being very careful about trading a '' too perfect pattern''.and every day when i update my $XBD chart it is on my mind... it IS too perfect in an elliot sense... the run to the top was perfect in every way.. EVERY WAY!... and the first sell off was a clear 5 waves down... not how corrections end... i have been patiently waiting for the abcd retrace or ABC in elliot terms...even now it is perfect... C waves are always the most dynamic and they have gunned the brokers the last few days, breaking the ''too perfect'' pattern in MER along the way..it was wrong for me to not trust the lines and look for the turn at the.886 in GS when the lines said double top...so if the pattern works, it will catch most traders off guard... if it fails the breaking of the pattern will be explosive and i will join the mania.
JI
jimkane
Rep: 3,058
Posts: 33,089
Watch crude and RBOB here very closely. This could be a critical decision for the broader market.
JI
jimkane
Rep: 3,058
Posts: 33,089
I wonder if the ER2 gets to 848 if it will do it at that 13:00 time factor the lines show. Not that it really matters to my trading, but it's just a curiosity to watch that. It may just thrust right up on the opening gap and be there shortly...
JI
jimkane
Rep: 3,058
Posts: 33,089
I just heard two stats over the last two days, which I don't think I mentioned in here yet. They seem ominous to me. Geo will appreciate these. Yesterday I heard this is the longest winning streak for the DOW since 1929. The day before I heard that hedge fund exposure and leverage is now greater than in '98 right before LTCM collapsed (and that was, if my info is correct, the highest ever at that point), which nearly brought the entire world's financial systems down with it. None of this will stop the market from going up as far as it can be run by the rampers, but I am definitiely in the 'this is a worldwide liquidity driven bubble' camp, so I'm cautious, for sure, on the higher timeframes.
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JI
jimkane
Rep: 3,058
Posts: 33,089
I think the second chart is particularly telling. I agree with the conclusion, this market is nothing more than Euro-yen carry trade on, Euro-yen carry trade off. No balance, no participation, no depth, as I discussed in my last monthly commentary, just leverage/deleverage, risk on/risk off, and that's it. Skynet is totally sentient. How long, like in the movie, until the machines decide to vaporize the useless humans?
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/tale-two-decouplings
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/tale-two-decouplings