I thought I might try something different here, and see how it goes. It's quite difficult for me to post a lot to the various topics, especially with charts, since the method I use for posting charts is very cumbersome. Some charts can take me a half hour or more to put together. Since the charts I use for posting are not my 'working' charts, this work is duplicative.

I have various ideas and thoughts here and there about different things, and if I have a 'central clearing area' where I can just put out a sentence or two, pointing to something without doing the work, the members can do what assessment and analysis they want with the ideas, and post charts if they want, preferably to the respective areas they have for that topic. This way it would leave this topic more 'clean'. If you have a question or comment on what I was pointing out you could post that in here.

Let me know if you have any thoughts on this, or anything you think would be helpful/useful. Keep in mind I am not going to just tell you all my best setups in advance, especially if I plan to trade them, as that is not 'what I do' in here, or anywhere. I want to point out things that may need some work, and might go unnoticed otherwise, or are just of interest.

Wow, the VIX finished up at 39.19, up from 36.88. Very curious indeed.

A quick little article about what I've been mentioning lately, and again in the last commentary:

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/Too-many-newsletters-have-decided/story.aspx?guid=%7BE008C4BA%2DFD9B%2D49F3%2DA46A%2D9757060E5394%7D

Well, a couple of months ago they would have taken today's news and driven everything into the ground....ES only down 13 points from the opening, pretty tame imo...

Yes, but the key thing is that for the first time in awhile they responded to bad news with down action. Recently they have responded to horrific news with up action. This is a big change in character, and is what I tend to see when the trend has changed. I'll be waiting to see if there is follow through on that attitude, or not. Also, many of the times they crushed it in the past on similar news they were in a 'bearish attitude'. When the ship is sailing bull, and everyone is bullish, it takes a little while to turn the ship around.

While I still think this may move to one of those upper areas, 9,500-9,600, 10K, or almost 11K, there is enough right in here for me to be taking this reaction off this area seriously, and watching the reaction to news will be my primary sentiment clue to guide my assessment of the technicals. This is, of course, referring to plays for an intermediate term here, like a move to news lows, played all the way in one shot say with options, or whatever. And ultimately, I think we will see significant new lows at some point. But, that's all just my opinion.

quote:

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Originally posted by jimkane

And ultimately, I think we will see significant new lows at some point. But, that's all just my opinion.

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And as long as I have known you your opinions turn out out to be true most of the time.

Thanks. The only fly in the oinment is that I just can't get any read on how the essentially unlimited reflation efforts of the government could alter this. One thing I can say, and I feel it with 99.99% certainty, is that if this does not cleanse out and set substantial new lows, I think there will be unintended consequences that will make everything we have seen to date seem like a walk in the park on a sunny day. Just one man's opinion. You can't get something for nothing, and you can't crash into a brick wall on your motorcycle at 100 MPH with no helmet and go dancing the next night, no matter what. All the King's horses and all the King's men...

I guess as long as people seem to find them interesting, I'll keep posting links for articles I find worthwhile:

http://www.investorsinsight.com/blogs/john_mauldins_outside_the_box/archive/2009/01/07/setting-the-bull-trap.aspx

Yes please do

the only thing i read is terry laundry's work.. he was correctly bullish into the top in 07 and bearish ever since, while calling the rallies including the last one.www.ttheory.typepad.com

Note from Jim: I had to remove the periods so the link would work.

Yes roofer .. he scares me with his 746 prediction :) I mean Terry Laundry. I hope geometry does not confirm this .. but still he was right the whole bear market. Should we prepare for retest??

I think the second chart is particularly telling. I agree with the conclusion, this market is nothing more than Euro-yen carry trade on, Euro-yen carry trade off. No balance, no participation, no depth, as I discussed in my last monthly commentary, just leverage/deleverage, risk on/risk off, and that's it. Skynet is totally sentient. How long, like in the movie, until the machines decide to vaporize the useless humans?

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/tale-two-decouplings