I thought I might try something different here, and see how it goes. It's quite difficult for me to post a lot to the various topics, especially with charts, since the method I use for posting charts is very cumbersome. Some charts can take me a half hour or more to put together. Since the charts I use for posting are not my 'working' charts, this work is duplicative.

I have various ideas and thoughts here and there about different things, and if I have a 'central clearing area' where I can just put out a sentence or two, pointing to something without doing the work, the members can do what assessment and analysis they want with the ideas, and post charts if they want, preferably to the respective areas they have for that topic. This way it would leave this topic more 'clean'. If you have a question or comment on what I was pointing out you could post that in here.

Let me know if you have any thoughts on this, or anything you think would be helpful/useful. Keep in mind I am not going to just tell you all my best setups in advance, especially if I plan to trade them, as that is not 'what I do' in here, or anywhere. I want to point out things that may need some work, and might go unnoticed otherwise, or are just of interest.

sure were a lot of buy signals across the board at the lows...tradable bottom yes .. the bottom who knows..as lond as it holds... .. though the dia and ndx traded exactly to where they needed to turn, the spx and aapl came up short( though aapl had great buy signal at low)

I can't get over how quiet this forum is, given the market action is so incredible I can't even begin to find words for it. Did everyone see the Russell (look at a 60-min chart) come right off that set line (there was a second line set, too), trendline, and .300-.382 convergence area (with a .447 close by)? The entire sell came right off that. Look at the ES. Same sets, and a super-tight .236, .300, and .382 convergence, and down it went like a stone off a bridge, 34 points high to low. Unreal. No matter how many screens hours I have I'll never, ever stop being totally blown away by this stuff.

On another note, I am keeping an eye out for a possible intermediate-term capitulation sell coming. I think the bulls are shell shocked and disillusioned by giving all of yesterday's monster gains and more back. I think all those who bought into the 'triple bottom works every time' hype on TV are really spooked now. If this drops well below the lows, it could really start a panic. Hey, maybe it just grinds down for a long time. And, because I could feel the hint of the panic in the air today, so does the Plunge Protection Team (PPT), so maybe they come in to save it again, doing one of their nice manipulation ramps.

Who knows, I just look to play what happens, and that's it. But I am getting ready if we do get the panic for the massive bounce once it exhausts itself. I'm keeping an eye out for something like SP cash 1170-80, and then a huge reversal (I have other areas, but this is the area I showed in the last commentary). None of this close on the low stuff. Now, I make no predictions, this may not play out at all, or even close, or maybe not tomorrow (although it seems set up right now for it), but I just wanted to throw out the idea that this is one scenario I am watching for, not only because of the potential big down (which, on higher timeframe plays one would already be positioned for), but also because of the potential bounce.

Also note that for this to happen all those splendid areas roofer pointed out, many of which produced this great bounce yesterday, would have to be taken out, and from a technical perspective, that would be a possible catalyst for the panic. Given how deadly serious the situation is, I feel, with FNM and FRE, I think panic might be an easy choice for a lot of people, and I think a lot of funds are facing redemptions right now with all the 'official bear market' news, and it may feed on itself. Again, I just wanted to toss out some ideas.

So, after a tiny little bounce, is today the day the above scenario starts? Or if Israel actually attacks Iran? Or if FNM and FRE are 'taken over' by the government? I don't know what the actual catalyst may be (and heck, maybe we finish up today 400 points...), but we have enough now that with the futures down this much, I'm ready...

I know I'm just a big worrywart, a real 'fraidy cat, but the news just broke that IndyMac went under, taken over by the FDIC in the second largest bank failure in U.S. history. Now, let's see if that news is not accurate (the takeover is on all the news releases, but I mean the part about being the second largest in U.S. history), or if it is as bad as they made it sound. This, on the day that FNM and FRE looked like they were done for. I also heard Moody's and S&P say the U.S.'s credit rating isn't in jeopardy, though. Funny time to bring that up. Imagine a downgrade of U.S. debt...

I am seriously worried we might be on the verge of a meltdown, as the seemingly clueless officials have nothing to say that makes any sense. If there is a run on the dollar the whole house of cards could come down in seconds. Hey, maybe nothing happens. But you start talking about government i.e. you and I, bailing out these GSE's, and bank failures that are banks that did huge numbers of mortgages, and so on, this is heavy duty scary stuff to me. Oil at a new record, gold heading up again, the dollar ready to break to a new all-time low, this just doesn't seem good.

And to make it all the more comical, they declared the bottom in today on TV, the final capitulation, on the short-covering pop on news that the discount window would be open to FNM and FRE, until it was found out this was not stated by the Fed at all, and it sold off hard. So much for the declaration. This is still being called 'the recession that never was', and the call is still for unrestricted buying with both fists, with all the money you have and can borrow from any source (the local loan shark?). None of that spells bottom to me. I'll be sleeping very uneasy for some time to come, I suspect... On the other hand, I've never seen better trading conditions, in my opinion.

jim i agree...last week was the greatest trading from both sides...at fridays low in dia a beauty of long trade setup... it was perfect... yet at that moment in time i was standing in the trading room talking loudly saying i cant believe this the market to reach the target has to rocket out of the hole... aint it funny how they float the rummor right when the trade has set up..the spike rally set up both my AAPL and IWM charts for big moves down...GS was already broken and set up retrace to breakdown point....at the end of the week price did what theory said it would coiled and stored energy at lines on indexes..charts.. explained in detailat mg.

I dreamed last night that the Dow dropped 600 points in one day....

Well, there is a good chance that today might be that day...

and now the feds are blaming it on the short sellers....

Check out this video, I think that he is right on!!
His comments on inflation are what Jim Kane has been telling us for the past few years!!

http://bigpicture.typepad.com/comments/2008/07/jim-rogers-fann.html

USD - R.I.P. :(

Duane,

Thanks.

Good Trading, All

Al KAmego

I think the second chart is particularly telling. I agree with the conclusion, this market is nothing more than Euro-yen carry trade on, Euro-yen carry trade off. No balance, no participation, no depth, as I discussed in my last monthly commentary, just leverage/deleverage, risk on/risk off, and that's it. Skynet is totally sentient. How long, like in the movie, until the machines decide to vaporize the useless humans?

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/tale-two-decouplings