I thought I might try something different here, and see how it goes. It's quite difficult for me to post a lot to the various topics, especially with charts, since the method I use for posting charts is very cumbersome. Some charts can take me a half hour or more to put together. Since the charts I use for posting are not my 'working' charts, this work is duplicative.

I have various ideas and thoughts here and there about different things, and if I have a 'central clearing area' where I can just put out a sentence or two, pointing to something without doing the work, the members can do what assessment and analysis they want with the ideas, and post charts if they want, preferably to the respective areas they have for that topic. This way it would leave this topic more 'clean'. If you have a question or comment on what I was pointing out you could post that in here.

Let me know if you have any thoughts on this, or anything you think would be helpful/useful. Keep in mind I am not going to just tell you all my best setups in advance, especially if I plan to trade them, as that is not 'what I do' in here, or anywhere. I want to point out things that may need some work, and might go unnoticed otherwise, or are just of interest.

Well, it's do or die, almost past die in the Euro, for all those areas. The dollar index is fully there. Sure looks like they want to break the dollar down. If so, all my areas are near the low. There was a big broker call just out for a 10% drop in the dollar index, which puts it at the low. But they still have to prove it, the areas are big ones. If the dollar is going down that much, likely the market is ready to explode up, then.

Not every day you see over 24 ES points in just over an hour on no news I can find. Pretty cool. I think the odds have dropped to perhaps 1% that an intermediate top is in. I doubt that 942 area will contain this, so I'm looking at the 1012-21 area next after that. Keep an eye on the currencies, as they have one more area if they 'break out' of this key area, then blue sky. I want to see how this acts as the areas line up. Although I am not ignoring the 1% chance that is left, and that this could have been end of month position squaring, I think it is clear this wants higher. It may be the end when this W4 looking thing blows out to the upside, right to the 942 area perhaps, but I'm not counting on it. It's going to be amazing to see, in my opinion, when, after this huge ramp, they open the futures higher on Sunday night and start to run them. We'll see.

yes Jim,
that 1015-20 area has a very tight fib grouping there, showing nice harmonicity. I think 940 level will be a dead fish soon with that flat pattern right under 940 that's setup to blow past it 'stab-style'.My next sub-area is around 960.Once that is cleared then it's off to the race to 1015 I think. But things rarely goes as planned so I always expect to see some funny things happening.And I try to prepare for that.
My main concerns are over the intermarket timing and context.
ok good weekend to all.
Go Magics!
T

Yes, T, I haven't given up the idea that the intermarket dynamics will play out as they are set here, only that the action into all those areas is acting like it wants to blow them all out. That may mean they are setting it up perfect for the crush, or that it is going to do exactly what it is hinting at. When I see a situation like this I think 'straddle'. It may go either way, but the clockspring is coiling very tightly, the end time seems near, and the expected move looks to be large. The only issue with a straddle, on say the SPY, would be if it breaks up and trends slowly and steadily the volatility may continue down, and that will hurt the straddle price. We may see enough movement, and the straddle may not pay off.

i continue to be on the lookout for a massive ramp up and collapse... should be the short of the year.... our tools ought to catch it.

That does look like the most likely outcome, roofer. There just aren't enough suckers in yet, and we haven't seen a sustained mania phase that I'd expect it to end with. Like you said, it will be one heck of an opportunity, and the tools should catch it.

So, based on the ISEE call/put indicator, Friday was, within a few points, at the high since the entire bear got started. In other words, people bought more opening equity calls compared to puts than they have at any time since the end of the bull. They are at the most bullish they have gotten since we started going down. Here are some previous highs in the ratio in the neighborhood of the reading we have right now. 11/6/07, 12/26/07 (and another spike at 12/31/07), 5/16/08, and 12/30/08. Go to your charts and see what happened after those dates. Also note that at a slightly higher level, the bull market level, we had two spikes on 10/8/07 and 10/29/07. Note how that picked out the start of the bear, too.

So, is this some primo information? Not really. Here's why. If the bear were to continue, this is a likely spot. But maybe the bear is over. Hence, the extremes we saw in the bear are useless now. Even if the bear were to continue, but we need a much larger correction than any we have seen so far, the previous extremes will not likely hold. This fits in dead perfect with the current scenario, where we are now dead exactly at the equal move comparison point of the weekly 'W2' move right in here, as the currencies all hit their key points. This is all fine and good if that's all it needs. All the stars are aligned. But if it needs more, or the bear is dead, it is useless.

It's like an oscillator. If the market is rolling up and down, the oscillator will nail the tops and bottoms. But if one of those highs or lows is right before it breaks out of the rolling range, the oscillator is useless, and tells you the exact wrong thing at the wrong time. The same applies here. Overbought can get more overbought, and this ISEE ratio can go higher if this is a trend up and not a rollover point. So, it is noteworthy that if all things are equal, and they likely are not, every star I have is lined up for this to be the rollover point. Every duck is in a row. One shot and I can get them all. And, in a way, that is what makes me nervous and expecting we explode to the upside. Like I mentioned, straddle is one of my ways of thinking in here. We'll see what the price action says.

Let me note here one thing that I have said many times before. For my intraday ES trading, or for intraday trading in stocks, this information is of little practical use. It has some use for me on 2-5 day swing plays, once I see certain price action things start to take place. The real use for me is in formulating plans for position trades, and for potential positioning in the retirement account. Not everyone is a daytrader, or exclusively a daytrader. The 'context', applicability, and use of some of the things I point out should be obvious, but I'm throwing out this clarification anyway, stating that which should go without saying.

im not doubting anyones input here but surely if everyone is looking for the es breakout they would or shud be posistioned for it which would mean it would catch everyone out by breaking dwn surely as there are very few buyers left to push it on that doesnt mean I wnt respect the price action though. also with everyone looking for the same thing mkts rarely move when everyone is expecting it which leads me to be cautious of moving higher based on fridays ramp just my opinon.

I agree 100%, Nick. That is why I am so cautious and not fully committed to just staying long no matter what. All I see is bulls, outcompeting each other to raise the targets higher and higher. Although I hear all about the bears all over, I don't see them. I can only find bulls. Sure, there is talk about an overdue correction, but that's it. Otherwise, I'm waiting for someone to top Laszlo's what is it now, S&P 1,700 call? If everyone is bullish already, as the ISEE shows, where does the new money come from? Here's an example:

http://www.minyanville.com/articles/rally-dollar-Fed-VIX-spx-SP500/index/a/22862

Now, it's rare I find an article from a reputable source where I can say I disagree on essentially every single point the person makes. Yet here it is. He even mentions how the put/call ratio is so high, people are buying puts like crazy. The ISEE shows they are buying calls like crazy, the most since the bear started. I've just never seen so many people explain why the market is going higher, much higher. We'll see. All this into a key area, too.

I think the second chart is particularly telling. I agree with the conclusion, this market is nothing more than Euro-yen carry trade on, Euro-yen carry trade off. No balance, no participation, no depth, as I discussed in my last monthly commentary, just leverage/deleverage, risk on/risk off, and that's it. Skynet is totally sentient. How long, like in the movie, until the machines decide to vaporize the useless humans?

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/tale-two-decouplings