I thought I might try something different here, and see how it goes. It's quite difficult for me to post a lot to the various topics, especially with charts, since the method I use for posting charts is very cumbersome. Some charts can take me a half hour or more to put together. Since the charts I use for posting are not my 'working' charts, this work is duplicative.

I have various ideas and thoughts here and there about different things, and if I have a 'central clearing area' where I can just put out a sentence or two, pointing to something without doing the work, the members can do what assessment and analysis they want with the ideas, and post charts if they want, preferably to the respective areas they have for that topic. This way it would leave this topic more 'clean'. If you have a question or comment on what I was pointing out you could post that in here.

Let me know if you have any thoughts on this, or anything you think would be helpful/useful. Keep in mind I am not going to just tell you all my best setups in advance, especially if I plan to trade them, as that is not 'what I do' in here, or anywhere. I want to point out things that may need some work, and might go unnoticed otherwise, or are just of interest.

I don't think we have too many commodity followers in here, but look at pork bellies. I've never seen so many lock limit down days in a row in my life. It's just starting to come off this last lock limit. Crazy, huh?

I follow the commodities Jim..do you trade all the markets, or just mainly Es and Crude?

I'll trade anything that is liquid, on any timeframe it is liquid, as long as I get a setup. I follow all the commodities.

In my opinion, this is a must see. And absolute must see.

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/and-now-some-bleacher-levity

This is very interesting. Maybe M will be right after all, in that they will 'pull it off' for one more bubble. In the end, though, a bubble by definition must burst, and the next time the results of that should be proportionally bigger, so, as I was saying, all they are doing is putting off the inevitable for awhile, only to make things worse and pay much more later. Early on when all this started I said in the commentary the only possible solution for 'them' is another bubble. It looks like that is indeed the plan. This whole thing should finish playing out around 2017, so we have a long ways to go. Note the article pointed out what I and others have noted, we never got to a revulsion stage. All I heard at 'the bottom' was how great stocks are, not how 'I'll never buy another stock for the rest of my life'.

So, Mexico just had the largest quarterly GDP contraction in at least thirty years, as Germany and France announce the recession is over? Something doesn't add up...

Jim can i ask do you really thk they can prop stocks up whilst pumping another bubble, when its clear that the the main two housing and credit still havent finsihed playing out, I have listened to bubblevision and lost count of the amt of times analysts have called the bottom in housing yet we still see a little change for it then to get clobbered again.

Prices are still moving lower, so the subprime crap has accumalated in losses not detracted they have only hidden that fact because accountancy tweaks and rules changes whilst the mkt moving higher has stopped the chat around it, it hasnt gone it still there.

So is commerical property and credit card debt and the credit contraction still going on I can see them getting so far but not another bubble, there are just too many things that will blow this apart in my view we cannot be through a recession that lasted 17mths when its unprecendented and ntg like in history has happened when the 2000 recession lasted 3 years.

I know the massive stimulus is also unprecedented in ts size but I agree something doesnt add up[ ,and I do not trust the figures coming out of europe at all, because the word on the street is like in the UK evry politician says we are through the worst yet the real lives are majorly affected people are still losing jobs, and that has a huge detrimental effect.

So for me yes we have a long way to go but I cannot see them reflating it this time print money yes can see that ,but basically devalue and devalue agn well that will wrk, spend spend spend I dnt think so.

I have never know a bankrupt ever to soLve his problem by getting another huge loan and do exactly the same things that got him bankrupt in the first place just my opinon of course.

I think they will devalue the USD as much as it takes to get out of all the debt, basically monetizing it. So, things must reprice at the new value of the dollar. So, say INDU is at 10,000. The dollar gets cut in half, and without any liquidity pump, no people buying anything, the INDU is now at 20,000. They cut the dollar in half again from there, and the INDU is at 40,000. No money going in pushing it up, no speculation, no buying frenzy, and INDU is at 40,000. Add the wild liquidity, the wild speculation, and so on, and I could see INDU 100,000 not too far down the road. I think the USD is 'past tense'. Eric liked my one movie analogy. I liken it to this, from Ghostbusters. The entity wants them to choose the form of the destructor. The one guy says to empty their minds so it can't determine any form for the destructor. Then the entity says that the destructor has been chosen. It's already over in my opinion. The dollar is done. From Searching for Bobby Fisher:

"You've already lost, you just don't know it yet."
"I've lost? Look at the board."
"I have..."

My 'prediction'/opinion (I am serious):
INDU 100,000
USD essentially zero
US in default

I have no timeline at all for this.

Keep in mind, too, the difference in currencies between 'relative' valuation and 'absolute'. Say the Euro is 1.43, or the dollar index at 78. This is relative to each other. If they double the number of Euros and double the number of dollars, all other things being equal, the Euro may still be 1.43, but both currency holders must pay twice as many to get the same item as before. The DX might still be 78, and the buying power of the dollar could be at 1/100 of what it was when I wrote this, if they all devalued the same proportional amount.

And last I checked they are proclaiming things are going to be gravy again soon. The world is coming out of the deep slump.
Don't get me wrong I want nothing more than a recession to end and for people to have jobs and prospects for the future so everyone can live their lives with less struggle, but as far as I can tell nothing has changed. The 'bad' guys are getting away with it again and making a killing while doing so. Guys like you and me are taking it up the you know what and we're paying for it too. Thanks a lot.
To quote Churchill 'The Americans will always do the right thing... after they've exhausted all the alternatives."

I think the second chart is particularly telling. I agree with the conclusion, this market is nothing more than Euro-yen carry trade on, Euro-yen carry trade off. No balance, no participation, no depth, as I discussed in my last monthly commentary, just leverage/deleverage, risk on/risk off, and that's it. Skynet is totally sentient. How long, like in the movie, until the machines decide to vaporize the useless humans?

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/tale-two-decouplings