I thought I might try something different here, and see how it goes. It's quite difficult for me to post a lot to the various topics, especially with charts, since the method I use for posting charts is very cumbersome. Some charts can take me a half hour or more to put together. Since the charts I use for posting are not my 'working' charts, this work is duplicative.

I have various ideas and thoughts here and there about different things, and if I have a 'central clearing area' where I can just put out a sentence or two, pointing to something without doing the work, the members can do what assessment and analysis they want with the ideas, and post charts if they want, preferably to the respective areas they have for that topic. This way it would leave this topic more 'clean'. If you have a question or comment on what I was pointing out you could post that in here.

Let me know if you have any thoughts on this, or anything you think would be helpful/useful. Keep in mind I am not going to just tell you all my best setups in advance, especially if I plan to trade them, as that is not 'what I do' in here, or anywhere. I want to point out things that may need some work, and might go unnoticed otherwise, or are just of interest.

well, today some GS head said that S&P will be back at 1500 by the end of the year...

Yep. I'm hearing 15K on the DOW, I'm hearing credit crunch over, inflation finally abating, corporate earnings coming up fantastic (the current analyst consensus has just been raised from 55% earnings growth for Q4 to 62%), housing crisis is over, the dollar is fine now, oil and the CRB Index have peaked, and on and on. Seriously, I heard all that today. The housing and credit bubble was the largest bubble in history, and with the worldwide leverage bubble that went with it, they pop, and the entirety of the fallout is a little slow growth (no recession) for a short while and the market corrects well less than even a mild bear market? Really?

If that truly is all the consequences of bubbles that big, heck, let's inflate a real monster now. There's really no downside. I have not heard a single person disagree to any great extent with all the positive statements above, even on the 'non-hype' channels. So, as I heard on an infomercial last night 'it must be true, because we couldn't say it on television if it wasn't'.

OK, so maybe the indices were at the mild bear market level, but the INDU only corrected 18%, and the duration was three months. Three months don't make a bear market in my book, it makes for a correction. So, the longest running cyclical bull in history (that's what they said this was) is still intact, and is now how many standard deviations from the norm, given it's still running, and looks like it will for years to come? Time will tell (especially with the acid test at that 1460-1470 area, if we do indeed get there), but I just can't imagine how we pop such a monster bubble, and have people everywhere say these are the worst fundamentals since the great depression, then we go to we are fine, new all-time highs coming, all problems magically erased by more Fed easy money (wait, that's what caused all the problems in the first place), in the blink of an eye. I just don't get it, where did all those problems go?

I recently finished off one of the best books I've ever read, Greenspan's Bubbles by Fleckenstein. I'd also recommend his articles on MSN, which discuss the same type of things as the book.

Go to MSN and search for Bill Fleckenstein article and it should pull up the article index page. I don't want to post it here because if they get a bunch of referrals from here, I'm not sure what their rules are for posting links.

I'd read as many of those articles as you can stand. It will give you another perspective from the one you get on bubblevision. Comments welcome.

Did everyone see this weekend's commentary? And Jim's Chart of the Month? Amazing.

I saw it. I can only repeat what I always say: amazing.

Amazing becomes awesome when it translates into $$$ ...I love it.
btw, J, forget the SPX 55-60-70 area this thing looks ready for wave3 down... i've got an insane magnet area for it near 1190 by the end of '08 !?! yeah u read that right: 1190. Ouch, it's gonna hurt if that materializes, that's just what the doctor may prescribe. The stock market will have to swallow this bitter medecine if it ever wants to get better and eventually go to new all time highs again someday. That's a long shot u might think, but in the context of the overall bigger picture 1190 seems reasonable and i am not kidding. I am not making any predictions though, just expressing my inner trader voice that wants to ring the alarm.
Awesome KT commentary as always.Thank you Jim. Amazing indeed, but it's beyond amazing when what u showed just matched what I already had on my own charts...except maybe for the 'crazy TL'. Would u care to elaborate on the crazyTL technique/concept for us? if not proprietary ,of course.
T

and look where it bounced today. See SPX post

nevermind the SPX post, I get an upload error. I'll try later

It's a shame I can't post a chart.

I think the second chart is particularly telling. I agree with the conclusion, this market is nothing more than Euro-yen carry trade on, Euro-yen carry trade off. No balance, no participation, no depth, as I discussed in my last monthly commentary, just leverage/deleverage, risk on/risk off, and that's it. Skynet is totally sentient. How long, like in the movie, until the machines decide to vaporize the useless humans?

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/tale-two-decouplings