I thought I might try something different here, and see how it goes. It's quite difficult for me to post a lot to the various topics, especially with charts, since the method I use for posting charts is very cumbersome. Some charts can take me a half hour or more to put together. Since the charts I use for posting are not my 'working' charts, this work is duplicative.

I have various ideas and thoughts here and there about different things, and if I have a 'central clearing area' where I can just put out a sentence or two, pointing to something without doing the work, the members can do what assessment and analysis they want with the ideas, and post charts if they want, preferably to the respective areas they have for that topic. This way it would leave this topic more 'clean'. If you have a question or comment on what I was pointing out you could post that in here.

Let me know if you have any thoughts on this, or anything you think would be helpful/useful. Keep in mind I am not going to just tell you all my best setups in advance, especially if I plan to trade them, as that is not 'what I do' in here, or anywhere. I want to point out things that may need some work, and might go unnoticed otherwise, or are just of interest.

Hmmm, reports worse than expected, but not blowout worse, market ignores the bad news and goes up nicely. That sounds familiar, I wonder where I heard that from?

BTW, look at the S&P and how it has now set up an ABCD with a flat ABCD in the BC leg, at a .382/.447 area, with a perfect set line all right in there. The .382, 1.000 price projection, and the 1.618 BC external retracement on the SPX.X all hit dead exact on. The ES ran after cash close and just about hit it. This will be extra interesting because that last minute rush up really drew in the bulls and the bullish sentiment. I love it when they get wildly on one side as a key area comes together. This will be a super-key test spot to see if the run up into these bigger ABCD's and the subsequent selloff are the start of another leg down, or not. If we get a 'wave 3' move past this potential CD leg here on Monday, that's a big clue. Very cool action.

On another note, the commercials are wildly short, just under 100,000 contracts (counting the critical ES, adjusted by a factor of five for equivalency, of course), and the small speculators are heavily net long. The big, smart money players, the ones who literally make the market, are betting on huge downside. When they are at extremes, historically, they have never been wrong even once, since they basically are the market. They hit about 120,000 short in March of '00 when the market topped. They tend to build positions as the market goes against them, but a big reversal is coming. They can take a lot of heat. They hit about 100,000 I think it was in Oct '07. They took them off as we dropped, got a tiny bit long, then started building big shorts again down here. In the past two weeks they have jumped up a lot. This is very, very noteworthy, IMO.

Of course, I must mention two things here. First, this is based on my info, and that could be inaccurate, so do your own research. Also, this is not a timing device, it only tends to portend the future and as I said, they can be very patient. Just some interesting info to ponder.

I wish someone had charted and posted my ABCD area(s) before the market opened today. Did you all see that? Right to the area(s), and dropped like a rock. I love a gap up after a frenzied rush up, right into a key area. The INDU shed just about four bills off the high at the area. I have to say, it doesn't get any sweeter than that, in my opinion...

P.S. It liked the upper areas, not the .382 ones, the .447/.486 groupings. The lines I have were right in there.

So beautiful, it's like an art masterpiece. Right off the main area (just do the most obvious 'adjusted' set on the Russell to see an almost dead on hit), and down at the bear market lows, with a sweet ABCD along the way for good measure. I have the Comp and the SOX at new closing lows for the entire bear if my data is correct, and stocks like GE, too, and GS. It would be so cool here to bounce up, so they can all say this is a 'test' of the 'retest' of the 'retest' of the other 'test' of the first 'test' that was from the 'retest'... That would draw in any last suckers, so they can be mercilessly slaughtered. Then it would be really free to move to the 1.128 or 1.272 area next, and so on.

Here's an article I thought was worth reading:

http://www.portfolio.com/news-markets/national-news/portfolio/2008/11/11/The-End-of-Wall-Streets-Boom#

It has some detail on how we got where we are now.

I sure do have a lot of cool things coming in around SP 800, if it could get there before bouncing. That might even set up a small bounce 'test' from below of this correction we have been in. And despite the futures being down and the INTC warning being so bad, the minor sell-off in INTC really has me thinking the PPT team wants to push this up in here to try to avert disaster. Just a thought. Price action will be the guide, but we are at a super-critical juncture here, and I suspect tomorrow could be up or down 600 or 800 in the DOW more likely than anything else. We'll see.

This is so going to go up tomorrow...

Almost unbelievable story Jim, Thanks

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Originally posted by jimkane

Here's an article I thought was worth reading:

http://www.portfolio.com/news-markets/national-news/portfolio/2008/11/11/The-End-of-Wall-Streets-Boom#

It has some detail on how we got where we are now.

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quote:

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Originally posted by jimkane

This is so going to go up tomorrow...

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As I was saying...

quote:

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Originally posted by jimkane

...we are at a super-critical juncture here, and I suspect tomorrow could be up or down 600 or 800 in the DOW more likely than anything else. We'll see.

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Well, I think getting up over 800 off the low of the day and finishing +553 is close enough to what I said...

We also got to both the key 1.128's and at one of my key lines, and very close to the other, so although 800 would have went through both of the lines to hit the 1.272, I think the reaction was off the area I was watching. Just do the obvious 'adjusted' set lines for SP or INDU and you'll see why this went nuts (well, and throw in a monster dose of government manipulation with our hard-earned tax dollars...).

I think the second chart is particularly telling. I agree with the conclusion, this market is nothing more than Euro-yen carry trade on, Euro-yen carry trade off. No balance, no participation, no depth, as I discussed in my last monthly commentary, just leverage/deleverage, risk on/risk off, and that's it. Skynet is totally sentient. How long, like in the movie, until the machines decide to vaporize the useless humans?

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/tale-two-decouplings