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JI
jimkane
Rep: 3,058
Posts: 33,089
I thought I might try something different here, and see how it goes. It's quite difficult for me to post a lot to the various topics, especially with charts, since the method I use for posting charts is very cumbersome. Some charts can take me a half hour or more to put together. Since the charts I use for posting are not my 'working' charts, this work is duplicative.

I have various ideas and thoughts here and there about different things, and if I have a 'central clearing area' where I can just put out a sentence or two, pointing to something without doing the work, the members can do what assessment and analysis they want with the ideas, and post charts if they want, preferably to the respective areas they have for that topic. This way it would leave this topic more 'clean'. If you have a question or comment on what I was pointing out you could post that in here.

Let me know if you have any thoughts on this, or anything you think would be helpful/useful. Keep in mind I am not going to just tell you all my best setups in advance, especially if I plan to trade them, as that is not 'what I do' in here, or anywhere. I want to point out things that may need some work, and might go unnoticed otherwise, or are just of interest.
MR
mreiserer
Rep: 110
Posts: 2,220
I think the whole world is at a tipping point right now. Let's hope it tips in the right direction....
JI
jimkane
Rep: 3,058
Posts: 33,089
Yeah, I'm seriously worried...
FA
fawaz
Rep: 0
Posts: 42
Jim,

In your commentary you said: "I had told several people the sign to watch for was if they 'break the buck' in the money market"

What you mean by "break the buck"?
JI
jimkane
Rep: 3,058
Posts: 33,089
Break the buck is a term used to signify that someone investing in the supposedly 'safe' money market no longer gets $1 back for the $1 they invested. This has only happened one time in history in the U.S. with one small fund, and they returned 0.97 cents on the dollar. In this case two funds broke the buck, one was at .90 cents when the government stepped in. One was a huge fund, I think the other one was pretty big, too, but I haven't followed up on researching this. It's easy to find on the Internet. The redemptions can cause sales of the assets at fire sale prices, breaking the buck bad, when the assets are perfctly sound. It's classic run on the bank stuff.
FA
fawaz
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Posts: 42
Thanks Jim,

I thought you were talking about the existing of the dollar as a currency.
This thing is so crazy and unbelievable. We are living history.
JI
jimkane
Rep: 3,058
Posts: 33,089
We sure are...
MR
mreiserer
Rep: 110
Posts: 2,220
I may be a bit biased, but I really did not expect that Europe was in such deep sh#!t as well. England maybe, but the rest (??). This is just a mess of epic proportions. I think it's just a matter of time (days?) until they have to halt a trading session here.



JI
jimkane
Rep: 3,058
Posts: 33,089
I think everyone should read this:

http://www.investorsinsight.com/blogs/john_mauldins_outside_the_box/archive/2008/10/06/the-international-currency-crisis.aspx

I would read all he has in his archive.

M and I discussed awhile back the possible fate of the Euro, with me coming down on the side that it will not last. I feel more strongly now about that than I ever have. I just don't see how a big 'coalition' will hang together when things get real, real bad. The desire to go to 'every man for himself' as the last of the lifeboats go out gets too strong.

Sure we may have another 1,000 point bounce in the market here soon, but I truly think we might be on the verge of a total collapse of the world economic system at any second, too, so I'm not getting too excited about bounces from oversold conditions when there is a lull in bad news, except to look at them as potentially outstanding trading opportunities (to make money that I may use for starting fires in my fireplace this winter?)
MR
mreiserer
Rep: 110
Posts: 2,220
Well, that's what scares me. That we may hold money in our hands and it's completely worthless, to the extent that we can't even board an airplane to get out....
I find the demise of the greenback just as much a real possibility. Maybe all this is just happening to pave way for the amero...one world currency, one world government...the new world order. Scary....
JI
jimkane
Rep: 3,058
Posts: 33,089
I just got to wondering if this isn't a plan for the USD to emerge as the one-world currency. Sounds odd, since everyone felt it was going to zero. But maybe the US will be best prepared to handle the crisis (a crisis generated here, for this purposes?), and as other currencies fail and $'s are the only currency people will accept for trade, the US regains not only world dominance, but went into debt over $100 trillion (in total obligations and debt) and instead of the currency collapsing and going into default, their treasuries are at all-time highs, and the $ emerges as the one-world currency. Now there's a trick if you can pull it off. Imagine if that was the plan, though, and they did it...
JI
jimkane
Rep: 3,058
Posts: 33,089
I think the second chart is particularly telling. I agree with the conclusion, this market is nothing more than Euro-yen carry trade on, Euro-yen carry trade off. No balance, no participation, no depth, as I discussed in my last monthly commentary, just leverage/deleverage, risk on/risk off, and that's it. Skynet is totally sentient. How long, like in the movie, until the machines decide to vaporize the useless humans?

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/tale-two-decouplings