I thought I might try something different here, and see how it goes. It's quite difficult for me to post a lot to the various topics, especially with charts, since the method I use for posting charts is very cumbersome. Some charts can take me a half hour or more to put together. Since the charts I use for posting are not my 'working' charts, this work is duplicative.

I have various ideas and thoughts here and there about different things, and if I have a 'central clearing area' where I can just put out a sentence or two, pointing to something without doing the work, the members can do what assessment and analysis they want with the ideas, and post charts if they want, preferably to the respective areas they have for that topic. This way it would leave this topic more 'clean'. If you have a question or comment on what I was pointing out you could post that in here.

Let me know if you have any thoughts on this, or anything you think would be helpful/useful. Keep in mind I am not going to just tell you all my best setups in advance, especially if I plan to trade them, as that is not 'what I do' in here, or anywhere. I want to point out things that may need some work, and might go unnoticed otherwise, or are just of interest.

Not only is this just too funny, but it also demonstrates what this market has become since that March low. There is no more 'We are buying this stock because we think its earnings will rise, and selling this one because we think its market share is shrinking and we have too much exposure at this level, and we are hedging some Euros because we feel this company has export exposure, and we are adding some gold to balance the portfolio exposure, and we are taking off some of our grains due to the recent run up, and so on...'

Now it's all 'Risk on, risk off'. The Squiddy Lord says 'Risk on', so we buy stocks (all of them, especially junk ones), commodities, the Euro, and we sell dollars as we borrow from the Fed for free in almost unlimited quanities, and we love the carry trade. The Squid says 'Risk off' and we do exactly the opposite. Easy to trade. Risk on, risk off. There are, and have been, only two positions since March. When that ends, things will change. Right now, the herd just follows the robot drones from the Squid: Risk on, risk off. Wax on, wax off.

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/karate-kid-market

Here's a thought, as we head for yet another Sunday night GLOBEX/Monday event. This week we have some big treasury auctions, I heard starting tomorrow. A 'failed auction' is their greatest worry. They need money flowing into treasuries, tomorrow. How do you get money flowing into treasuries? Flow it out of stocks. We may see a drop to accomplish this, and then right back into stocks shortly after that. Plus, this is options expiration week. So, I'm keeping an eye out for this possible manipulation. We'll know shortly. If the action starts to follow that plan, I'll be ready. Just something to ponder.

excellent: S.E.C. Accuses Goldman Sachs of Fraud on Mortgage Deals

Originally posted by mreiserer

excellent: S.E.C. Accuses Goldman Sachs of Fraud on Mortgage Deals

Give it to those f!#ckers:
http://www.nytimes.com/2010/04/17/business/17goldman.html?hp

I have to say this is a pretty big deal. It also shows how the government thinks the markets have turned the corner (there is really nothing else they care about right ??) and now it's safe to go after some people. Fantasy begets fantasy....

Here are two articles worth reading (on the first, read the full article in full screen mode), especially if you like sentiment indicators, as I do. We may be close.

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/thoughts-intermediate-trend-and-excess-liquidity-driven-market-claasen-research

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/investor-sentiment-time-pay-attention

Wanna get spooked? With 2012 coming and all, I thought I'd post this. If you don't want to get spooked, then just skip this. Go here and scroll down and read this comment:

by velobabe
on Sun, 05/02/2010 - 19:27
#328405

on this page:

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/oil-spill-how-bad

Amazing stuff thanks Jim

Here's an interesting little dovetail to ponder. The DX hit my 84 area, and exceeded it a bit, and is now chopping madly in the area. The Euro looks way overextended. Oil took a big haircut, and is rising a bit. Look at copper, and say FCX. Look at those patterns and lines! What is the talk with stocks? Buy, buy, buy. Everyone says this is a monster buying opportunity. Point is, it would make sense we go to 'risk on' again in here. Now, read this article:

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/sarkozy-will-get-%E2%80%9Cstuffed%E2%80%9D

That's the dovetail with my above observations. We go up here, trap a lot of people, as they like to when they kill something, and then it's over. As I said to one of my students two days ago, I think this drop was the warning shot over the bow for the end of the 'bull' market. It may go up to another new high, but the end is nigh, I think. Unless the Fed does start to expand their balance sheet to that $8-$9 trillion max Berquacke sees (see * below), this thing may finally be done.


* I've said many nutty things, and many, many of them have played out. Hence Eric's 'Jimadamus' nickname. I have made the most outrageous claim ever made by anyone, that Greenspan will eventually be responsible for more human suffering than Hitler. I stand by that statement. I'd love to be wrong, but when this thing shakes out, I fear my statement will be looked at as way too conservative. My second craziest statement I've ever made was that the Fed would be willing to expand its balance sheet from its current insane over $2+ trillion to $10 trillion. I mean, how insane is that?

It's been stable at the $2+ trillion here for awhile now. Many say that's insane, so any increase would bring a lot of outcry, right? I said they'd go up to $10 trillion to keep the game going. They are on this course, there is no going back, they'll go until they succeed or they nuke the entire planet, end of story, in my opinion. Anyway, $10 trillion is a silly, outrageous claim. Until the other day, when they released notes where Bernquacke said he sees the upper end of the Fed balance sheet, if need be, at $8-$9 trillion. $8-$9 trillion!!! If he admits he'd go to $8-$9 trillion, and the need arose, is $10 trillion unfathomable? Heck, no. My insane comment was confirmed by Bernquacke himself! Rock me, Jimadamus. Here comes Zero Hedge's Dow 36,000. Maybe the entire planet will be in meltdown chaos, riots in the streets, but the Dow will be at 36,000. It is possible...

This sums up my thoughts quite well:

http://www.xtrenders.com/2010/05/still-expecting-new-lows-to-be-at-least.html

I think the second chart is particularly telling. I agree with the conclusion, this market is nothing more than Euro-yen carry trade on, Euro-yen carry trade off. No balance, no participation, no depth, as I discussed in my last monthly commentary, just leverage/deleverage, risk on/risk off, and that's it. Skynet is totally sentient. How long, like in the movie, until the machines decide to vaporize the useless humans?

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/tale-two-decouplings