I thought I might try something different here, and see how it goes. It's quite difficult for me to post a lot to the various topics, especially with charts, since the method I use for posting charts is very cumbersome. Some charts can take me a half hour or more to put together. Since the charts I use for posting are not my 'working' charts, this work is duplicative.

I have various ideas and thoughts here and there about different things, and if I have a 'central clearing area' where I can just put out a sentence or two, pointing to something without doing the work, the members can do what assessment and analysis they want with the ideas, and post charts if they want, preferably to the respective areas they have for that topic. This way it would leave this topic more 'clean'. If you have a question or comment on what I was pointing out you could post that in here.

Let me know if you have any thoughts on this, or anything you think would be helpful/useful. Keep in mind I am not going to just tell you all my best setups in advance, especially if I plan to trade them, as that is not 'what I do' in here, or anywhere. I want to point out things that may need some work, and might go unnoticed otherwise, or are just of interest.

This whole mess of derivatives that has caused all this, Warren Buffet's 'financial weapons of mass destruction', really reminds me of a line from Jurassic Park: 'Your scientists were so preoccupied with whether or not they could that they didn't stop to think if they should...' That sums it up for me.

I am really not convinced we are in a new long term bull market yet.Although the bounce up seems legit to me for some long-side daytrades in SP indu etc. But I still think the bears ain't done yet...IMHO.
T

I agree 100%. I think we are in a secular bear which will last until around 2017, and even this cyclical bear should run until later next year. Look how many bounces the last bear had, and recall that 300+ up day stat I mentioned in my one commentary there. Plus, why would anyone think the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression would end with one of, if not the, shortest and shallowest bears in history?

Alt-A's will start a several year reset cycle soon, and they are more than subprime. Then commercial real estate is still not hit yet. And there is lots of other leverage to unwind. I think we are in the second or third inning. But, I'll be thrilled to play long when it is going up.

Everyone really should read this:

http://market-ticker.denninger.net/

The Mother of all Frauds, Sat Sept 20th entry.

I seriously think this is the end of the United States. Seriously.

Here's one quote:

"Sec. 8. Review.

Decisions by the Secretary pursuant to the authority of this Act are non-reviewable and committed to agency discretion, and may not be reviewed by any court of law or any administrative agency."

Huh?

Well, I am not sure if it is the end of the United States, but it's the end of capitalism as we know it.
Or, if you will, the 'patriot act' just got a 'little' (economic) brother....
And now G.W. will find a reason to stay in power, too...just watch....

I've had serious discussions with a few who truly believe he will declare some form of martial law and stay in power. It is going to be very interesting. And by 'end' I meant as we know it. The biggest blow, I think, will be the reissuance of a new currency, hence wiping out lifetimes of work for most of us. This sounded a bit far-reaching even a year ago, but now, I don't find it even a tiny bit unrealistic.

and out comes the amero and the goal for global world domination will come closer and closer...

Not too long ago that would have sounded like a nutty conspiracy theory, and I'm one of the most rational guys I've ever seen, and I seriously think things like that could actually unfold.

Good article here:
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/02/business/02crisis.html?pagewanted=1&hp

Here's a curious writeup:

http://tech.groups.yahoo.com/group/kondratyev/message/31240

I think the second chart is particularly telling. I agree with the conclusion, this market is nothing more than Euro-yen carry trade on, Euro-yen carry trade off. No balance, no participation, no depth, as I discussed in my last monthly commentary, just leverage/deleverage, risk on/risk off, and that's it. Skynet is totally sentient. How long, like in the movie, until the machines decide to vaporize the useless humans?

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/tale-two-decouplings