I thought I might try something different here, and see how it goes. It's quite difficult for me to post a lot to the various topics, especially with charts, since the method I use for posting charts is very cumbersome. Some charts can take me a half hour or more to put together. Since the charts I use for posting are not my 'working' charts, this work is duplicative.

I have various ideas and thoughts here and there about different things, and if I have a 'central clearing area' where I can just put out a sentence or two, pointing to something without doing the work, the members can do what assessment and analysis they want with the ideas, and post charts if they want, preferably to the respective areas they have for that topic. This way it would leave this topic more 'clean'. If you have a question or comment on what I was pointing out you could post that in here.

Let me know if you have any thoughts on this, or anything you think would be helpful/useful. Keep in mind I am not going to just tell you all my best setups in advance, especially if I plan to trade them, as that is not 'what I do' in here, or anywhere. I want to point out things that may need some work, and might go unnoticed otherwise, or are just of interest.

I'm putting this in this section because it's more technical analysis than 'economic'. Check this one out. Look at the first chart especially. Click on it for full size.

http://www.xtrenders.com/2010/05/did-we-see-intermediate-term-lows.html

If you are a mentor student of mine you should see it right off, as we have likely covered this on many charts. You all know how I like lines, and how I work them. Going back here to the Great Depression, there is an overhead line. It 'breaks out' over it, and then comes back for a nice 'test'. It then fails to set a significant new high, and breaks back under the line. What do I look for, then? A backtest. We just had it, and it rolled hard. This is just classic line behavior. It strongly indicates to me the 'bull' market could be over, something I suspected when it just started to roll over. I mentioned this to several students, and I can still vividly recall their 'lack of ability to consider it'.

Now, in a situtation like this, the first key area is where it broke out from, as shown on that chart, at about 500. This makes perfect sense putting in a new low below 666. Absolutely no one expects that (except a tiny few perma bears), so that greatly increases the chances of it, in my opinion. But, if this a once in a worldtime meltdown coming, it should at least erase the entire credit expansion that created the mess, i.e. the 1982 breakout from the last secular bear, as he shows at 125-150. That would line up with Terry Laundry's 40-year cycle chart.

As has been made clear here many times, I agree with the comments made in his post, and those are the kind of conditions that could bring this down to 125-150. No, it can't happen when the Fed is creating hundreds of trillions of dollars to pump it up (Zimbabwe 100 trillion notes are available on eBay for a pittance), but that will end. When the entire system goes, there will be no more Fed, no Bernquacke, no Turbo Timmy, no PPT, no MRRD's, none of that, and that's when it could give way to that level.

If they do hyperinflate and the market goes to a million or whatever, if you adjust out the hyperinflation and do a 'value chart' (essentially a gold denominated S&P chart) I think it will hit this level on that chart. That's the value level it is headed for, in my opinion. One body of work I saw showed that deflationary secular cycles rotate with inflationary ones. If so, the Great Depression was deflationary, the 67-82 was inflationary, this one will be deflationary. S&P 125-150 would be deflationary.

My point is, other than David Tice and a few perma-bears, no one, and I mean no one is saying that was the end of the 'bull' market. 100% of the people are just debating about where the correction ends. When 100% of the people in the market say one thing, it essentially never happens. Just keep that in mind.

Now this is cool. My mentor students should really relate to this, given the newer concepts I have been showing (please do not mention those concepts in this forum, they are part of the nondisclosure material). I think jarek will particularly like this one. It was sent to me by a new member.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=at50acNlke8&feature=related

I think the second chart is particularly telling. I agree with the conclusion, this market is nothing more than Euro-yen carry trade on, Euro-yen carry trade off. No balance, no participation, no depth, as I discussed in my last monthly commentary, just leverage/deleverage, risk on/risk off, and that's it. Skynet is totally sentient. How long, like in the movie, until the machines decide to vaporize the useless humans?

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/tale-two-decouplings