I thought I might try something different here, and see how it goes. It's quite difficult for me to post a lot to the various topics, especially with charts, since the method I use for posting charts is very cumbersome. Some charts can take me a half hour or more to put together. Since the charts I use for posting are not my 'working' charts, this work is duplicative.

I have various ideas and thoughts here and there about different things, and if I have a 'central clearing area' where I can just put out a sentence or two, pointing to something without doing the work, the members can do what assessment and analysis they want with the ideas, and post charts if they want, preferably to the respective areas they have for that topic. This way it would leave this topic more 'clean'. If you have a question or comment on what I was pointing out you could post that in here.

Let me know if you have any thoughts on this, or anything you think would be helpful/useful. Keep in mind I am not going to just tell you all my best setups in advance, especially if I plan to trade them, as that is not 'what I do' in here, or anywhere. I want to point out things that may need some work, and might go unnoticed otherwise, or are just of interest.

Here's a great read for those like me (maybe just M???) who like to wallow in this stuff. The first half is the usual negative economic stuff, but the second half is a splendid study on cycles and P/E's, in line with what I have been saying for awhile.

http://www.investorsinsight.com/blogs/thoughts_from_the_frontline/archive/2009/02/20/while-rome-burns.aspx

Thanks Jim. Really good article.

More of the same:
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/02/24/business/worldbusiness/24euro.html?hp

Yep. Makes me sick. As I've said many times, this thing has barely gotten started, in my opinion. I don't care whether the stock market bottoms soon and goes straight to the moon or not, the crisis is going to take a long time from now to play out. Even if the stock market rises and that helps lower the capital requirements of the banks, and helps the 401K'ers, and helps the undecapitalized pensions and such, all of which is a 'good' thing, it will do nothing for the suffering of the poor people, and all of what is unfolding around the world.

I have been using a saying a lot lately. I had heard it, I don't recall where, and saying it to my better half quite a bit. She doesn't like how I predicted all this. I had told her I thought 'creative financing' of houses was a big part of something about to unfold that I said would either bring the entire world financial system down, or pretty close, and she thought I was beyond insane, as she looked at me like I had lobsters crawling out of my ears. She somehow feels that being aware of all this, and predicting the next shoe to drop, talking about it, is just being way too negative. Anyway, I thought it was somewhat of an appeasement to her this saying I heard: 'If you bet that the sun is going to explode and you're right, what do you win?'

As I say to all the non-market people that ask me about the situation today, I tell them I see it like you ran a guy on a motorcycle into a brick wall at 100 MPH, with no helmet, and now you want to know what we can do for him. The honest answer is 'not much'. The secret is not to drive your motorcycle into brick walls at 100 MPH without a helmet on. I talked until I was blue in the face about this years back, I put stuff on the website, and all I got from 99% of the people was a vigorous argument why I was insane and just way, way too negative. Not the people in here, but everyone else. This thing was just a runaway freight train, it had to play out, and, I feel, just like global warming, they will argue against it until it is too late. It's just the human way. Then it's time to pay the fiddler, and you don't set the price, he does. That's just the game.

I'm not sure what my point is here, or if I even have a point, but many tell me they like my ramblings, so I decided I had a few minutes to kill, and a rambling I went :-)

It's good to vent sometimes. Fact is that you have predicted what no one ever wanted to hear.
The tale of the three monkeys always has a place in human history.

Hey Jim,


I hear you like all the guys in here, the thin that defies belief is that people tat have got us all into this mess are actually handing the baton over to people even less well equpied to get us out of this mess and yet Obama speaks and everyone believes hell save us, I even heard some laughable sentor sayng he felt Hank Paulson did a great Job with the work he did considereing what he had to work with, we even have bumbling Gordon Brown here excusing himself for his total ineptness asour chancellor for 10yrs and now PM because its a global crisis, the biggest laugh of all they all want to sack this executive and that executive and slash their bonuses what they seem to forget is they were at the helm of these countries watching thius unfold and whilst the tills were ringing and the lobbyists were fundin eveyone all of them were happy to turn the blind eye now the preverbial has hit the fan u hear it wasnt me its a globol slowdown the one question I havent heard asked is global slowdnw or not where and how did it start and why we all know but its subprime this and subprime that the fact is the credit bubble is vast and not just subprime as well all know with jumbo loans also being affected along with credit card debt and the biggest global housing bubble ever what makes me laugh is they all sit there telling us what they are going to do to save us when they dont have a prayer because they actually are that arrogant to believe because of they years of bs they have told each other they can stop it well this time they cnt I am with you this will play out and be farmore painful I think we have sen the tip of the iceberg in terms of the casaulties this bear will take and to top it all they sit there running our countries with our tax dollars and pounds with their inflation busting protected pensions and vast salries and expenses running our countries into the groun while pattinr themselves on the back and the saddest thing of all there are so many people in so deep that even though thewy can see the mess and know its gonna get worse they cannot pull away which leave s just a handful of people reall willing to stand up and tell the truth which is why so many more are gonna lose so much more by the time this ends and thats a long time from now.

Had one of those dreams last night where the S&P tanked 120 points in one session...

You sure it wasn't up 120? If 'The 'new' New Deal' can't sink this, nothing can...

nope down 120 which is still the likeliest trajectory imo (an I know you are being sarcastic), but to be honest I really couldn't care less. The big boys we'll never get the punishment they deserve and the talking heads will never stop yapping....what a country, what a world...

Yep, that's what I've come to realize. One of the greatest things my dad ever taught me, one of the best life lessons I ever learned, was this: "The problem with a#%holes is that you can never 'get' them." I have found this to be true all my life. No matter what you say or do, they are slipperier than a wet eel, they always squirm away, usually saying it's all your fault.

I think the second chart is particularly telling. I agree with the conclusion, this market is nothing more than Euro-yen carry trade on, Euro-yen carry trade off. No balance, no participation, no depth, as I discussed in my last monthly commentary, just leverage/deleverage, risk on/risk off, and that's it. Skynet is totally sentient. How long, like in the movie, until the machines decide to vaporize the useless humans?

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/tale-two-decouplings