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JI
jimkane
Rep: 3,058
Posts: 33,089
I thought I might try something different here, and see how it goes. It's quite difficult for me to post a lot to the various topics, especially with charts, since the method I use for posting charts is very cumbersome. Some charts can take me a half hour or more to put together. Since the charts I use for posting are not my 'working' charts, this work is duplicative.

I have various ideas and thoughts here and there about different things, and if I have a 'central clearing area' where I can just put out a sentence or two, pointing to something without doing the work, the members can do what assessment and analysis they want with the ideas, and post charts if they want, preferably to the respective areas they have for that topic. This way it would leave this topic more 'clean'. If you have a question or comment on what I was pointing out you could post that in here.

Let me know if you have any thoughts on this, or anything you think would be helpful/useful. Keep in mind I am not going to just tell you all my best setups in advance, especially if I plan to trade them, as that is not 'what I do' in here, or anywhere. I want to point out things that may need some work, and might go unnoticed otherwise, or are just of interest.
RO
roofer
Rep: 3,689
Posts: 3,574
yep... today's low in spy is going in my all time classic file....the gann , fib, pivot, measured move,medianline traders were all there....
JI
jimkane
Rep: 3,058
Posts: 33,089
Wow, they took a nice shot at 120 in crude there, hitting 119.92, right at the 1.272 off that 15-min DT ABCD there, before backing it off a bit, probably to get ready for the next shot.

So, speaking of news (besides oil prices) that might get this thing rolling off the areas , I was thinking, let's see, Fed meeting (and maybe no rate cut), lots of earnings, and reports, well, we have GDP, Chicago PMI, PCE core inflation, ISM, among some others, and the biggie, non-farm payrolls on Friday. If the market finishes up on the week, over the areas, after all that, then this thing is solid, at least until that 1460 area. Myself, although my bias is long to this point, my gun is cocked, my hand is over the holster, my trigger finger is twitching, and I'm ready to draw. Feels real funny, though, being the only person I am aware of on the entire earth who would consider a short right now...
RO
roofer
Rep: 3,689
Posts: 3,574
jim you are not alone.. the only two traders work i factor into my longer term work remain firmly bearish... terry laundry and tony caldaro...
JI
jimkane
Rep: 3,058
Posts: 33,089
Really? Well, it's good to hear such top names in that camp. I guess mostly what I hear are the knuckleheads on financial TV, where they have a bullish agenda, and a handful of traders, some who are money managers who must play the long side only, and hence they are biased. So, to an extent I may have a 'sampling bias'. And I'm not so much bearish as fully willing to play both sides, and fully willing to notice the fundamentals are screaming bear and recession to my eyes, and I don't want to ignore that, either. Thanks for the note, roofer.
RO
roofer
Rep: 3,689
Posts: 3,574
there is always something to short.. i have position tradeshorts going in BBY, TLT, NEM, based on charts i have shown here.
JI
jimkane
Rep: 3,058
Posts: 33,089
Well, I think the Fed is clueless after what I just saw. I think we are in danger of hyperinflation, and they say inflation is expected to moderate. I just don't get it...
JI
jimkane
Rep: 3,058
Posts: 33,089
Wow. I guess I'm not even slightly surprised.

They are coming into techs, though, like a serious asset allocation swap here. The price action is noteworthy.

Even though the first area hasn't been breached yet, and the next area around 1460 sits above, I have to be honest, I'm suspecting we may very well see new highs. I'm still watching and ready to play whatever unfolds, and the moves on the lower timeframes are excellent in my opinion for shorter-term plays, but I am really starting to believe the powers that be want new all-time highs. As it is, the transports have now decisively taken out an incredibly key area to me, and are but a mere small stretch to new all-time highs. Wow.
MR
mreiserer
Rep: 110
Posts: 2,220
So it appears. Recently I read a quote by a security analyst (I forget where) who said that "this is the slowest moving train wreck he has ever seen"

RO
roofer
Rep: 3,689
Posts: 3,574
jim...we all feel trapped by our words at one time or another... look at my''BIG IDEA'' in X... it got blown out of the water...and how did i know it was happening?because kane patterns set up one after another. to day was no exception and the charts gave the heads up as to the money moving around..i went home wednesday night shortNEM. FSLR,X and long IWM based on the geo 93 as well as the fact thatDIA andQQQQ had completed kane continuation patterns on the close... on todays open , SPY and mdy completed their patterns... so now all five were pointing up... fully expected my shorts to get blown out of water... but they did not...they did well... very welll...a tribute to the tools...
JI
jimkane
Rep: 3,058
Posts: 33,089
Wow, got the 'ride til close' day I love so much. So, tomorrow we gap up and run a bit? :-)
JI
jimkane
Rep: 3,058
Posts: 33,089
I think the second chart is particularly telling. I agree with the conclusion, this market is nothing more than Euro-yen carry trade on, Euro-yen carry trade off. No balance, no participation, no depth, as I discussed in my last monthly commentary, just leverage/deleverage, risk on/risk off, and that's it. Skynet is totally sentient. How long, like in the movie, until the machines decide to vaporize the useless humans?

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/tale-two-decouplings