I thought I might try something different here, and see how it goes. It's quite difficult for me to post a lot to the various topics, especially with charts, since the method I use for posting charts is very cumbersome. Some charts can take me a half hour or more to put together. Since the charts I use for posting are not my 'working' charts, this work is duplicative.

I have various ideas and thoughts here and there about different things, and if I have a 'central clearing area' where I can just put out a sentence or two, pointing to something without doing the work, the members can do what assessment and analysis they want with the ideas, and post charts if they want, preferably to the respective areas they have for that topic. This way it would leave this topic more 'clean'. If you have a question or comment on what I was pointing out you could post that in here.

Let me know if you have any thoughts on this, or anything you think would be helpful/useful. Keep in mind I am not going to just tell you all my best setups in advance, especially if I plan to trade them, as that is not 'what I do' in here, or anywhere. I want to point out things that may need some work, and might go unnoticed otherwise, or are just of interest.

Anyone watching oil going straight up here, almost 8 off the low this AM? Look at a 5-min chart. Unreal. And on an inventory build.

Also, take a look at some 1-min charts on say GBP and the Loonie, for example, starting right before 10:30 this AM. There is some wild stuff going on. And while you are on 1-min charts, look at some treasuries. Is that bubble finally bursting, or is this all just illiquid last day of the year nonsense? Very, very curious.

Is that oil warning of some big Israeli offensive, or something else that the big players know that we don't?

Actually, I wasn't looking at the premarket low in crude, so it is actually up 8.58 off that, by my data...

thx jim for pointing this out didnt trade yesterday but appreciate the heads up

Can I ask do you think if the impending bursting of treasuries that everyone is expecting comes to light in your opinion would that give a significant lift to equities in yor opinion as would normally be expected or would something else be playing in the mix possibly that wouldnt lift equities but sell them off.

The thing I find most curious is that everyone, and I mean every last analyst, says not only is the bottom in, the lowest range of gain for '09 I found was 15%. The average range was 15%-30%. Not one single analyst said we would be up less than 15%, no less any saying we might be down. And the year is starting up, continuing the buying frenzy. I always struggle when I see all the people that missed everything up to this point all saying the same thing, and it's the thing that 'helps out' the industry they are in the most. Reminds me of the dot.com days.

The curious thing is that this rally is extremely broad-based, and I don't mean as far as stocks. Look at energy, it is exploding. Look at metals. Grains and other futures. Look at cattle and hogs. Money is flowing aggressively into everything except what? The big bubble: treasuries. They are selling hard. How often do you see the 30-year drop two points in a day?

So, is this a serious move into everything, and the popping of the treasuries bubble? As Nick asked, out of treasuries, and into stocks, and everything else? That would be the 'norm', out of treasuries and into stocks. But what about rapidly rising rates? How will that affect housing, business, and so on? Isn't that the opposite of what the Fed is trying to do? And will the selling beget more international selling as everyone panics to get out, further ramping up rates? Will no one care, and just keep buying stocks and all the rest? And when rates go up, that should strengthen the dollar, no? Lately the market has been inverse to the dollar, dollar up, market down. So, would we break that and go dollar up, market up?

This is going to be a very interesting time, for sure. I will say that the few 'fund managers' that I know are getting wildly long, to hear them tell it. Seems like an awesome year is ahead for Joe Average and the average fund manager. Good for them. I'm still going to keep an open mind, though.

One big thing I haven't heard anyone mention yet is the big ABCD in the VIX, completing right in here, on the top of the old range. If that was to play out, we would be on the verge of a wicked selloff. Now, as I heard one option trader say, they don't want volatility any more (meaning they aren't buying volatility). This may mean, like oil and other bubbles, the volatility bubble, as far as the VIX, is popping.

It was very 'odd' that the VIX started to drop even when the market was going down recently. I was watching to see if this was an illiquid year end phenomenon, or something else. It was very strange the new range would stay so high when the market had totally settled down. Point being, the ABCD very well may not play out. It will surely give a big clue as to whether or not there has been a sea change in the VIX, in my opinion. So, keep an eye on this, and maybe someone can post this chart and setup in its own topic.

Hmmm, 30-year is now down over 3 full points. Wow. And the parade of analysts on TV saying the bottom is in in the stock market is just never-ending...

So, it looks like we may get number 20 today as far as +300 days. But, I'm sure this is one of those in the group of +300 days that happens in the early stage of a bull market and isn't part of an ongoing bear. I know, because they said so on TV.

Hmmm, is that jump of more than a full point in the VIX in one minute before the market sold at all a glitch in my data?

Well, they couldn't do that +300. I guess it's a real bull market :-)

This VIX thing is really cool to watch. About a point and a half jump in a few minutes, right off the ABCD area. It preceded the small selling that started after. Probably nothing, but very, very interesting.

I think the second chart is particularly telling. I agree with the conclusion, this market is nothing more than Euro-yen carry trade on, Euro-yen carry trade off. No balance, no participation, no depth, as I discussed in my last monthly commentary, just leverage/deleverage, risk on/risk off, and that's it. Skynet is totally sentient. How long, like in the movie, until the machines decide to vaporize the useless humans?

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/tale-two-decouplings