I thought I might try something different here, and see how it goes. It's quite difficult for me to post a lot to the various topics, especially with charts, since the method I use for posting charts is very cumbersome. Some charts can take me a half hour or more to put together. Since the charts I use for posting are not my 'working' charts, this work is duplicative.

I have various ideas and thoughts here and there about different things, and if I have a 'central clearing area' where I can just put out a sentence or two, pointing to something without doing the work, the members can do what assessment and analysis they want with the ideas, and post charts if they want, preferably to the respective areas they have for that topic. This way it would leave this topic more 'clean'. If you have a question or comment on what I was pointing out you could post that in here.

Let me know if you have any thoughts on this, or anything you think would be helpful/useful. Keep in mind I am not going to just tell you all my best setups in advance, especially if I plan to trade them, as that is not 'what I do' in here, or anywhere. I want to point out things that may need some work, and might go unnoticed otherwise, or are just of interest.

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Originally posted by mreiserer

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Originally posted by jimkane

I hadn't seen that artcle, but when doing my own count on this, I did see that the last two were technically after the ultimate bottom. I looked at the 'retest', the final shoulder of the head and shoulders bottom as still a part of the final death throes of the bear, and more likely still a part of that as opposed to a part of a launch of the new bull. This small stretch was based on all those 300+ days in the bear, and not one single day once the bull started off that second shoulder.

I don't disagree with the 300+ days can also happen at the very early stages of a rally sometimes, but I will add that they still seem to be a final end of the bear/correction more than a part of the new rally. Notice in the two examples from '97 and '98 that those were both right at the end of very serious corrections, and that no other 300+ days occurred after that in the entire rallies. Point is, although the 300+ days can happen at the end of the correction, using it as an indicator is really trying to pick a bottom, it may work, one in how many tries?

So far in this bear we have had 19 300+ days if my count is correct, and three days just a few points short of 300. So, give or take 22 times it didn't lead to much of a rally, as far as being an indicator that the bear was over, or that a significant rally was about to take place. In the end, yes, the person who first mentioned this should have descibed it more as a high probability stat and not an absolute that works for all bulls and bears. Nonetheless, it is a very telling and impressive factoid, in my opinion.

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My count is 17 since the top on 10/07 with 8 of them occurring in the last two months.

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What data source are you using for that count, M?

Okay, now here's a big clue coming, in my opinion. Today Kuwait said they are cancelling a $17.4 billion deal with DOW. DOW planned to used some of those funds for their acquisition of ROH. This is a big blow to DOW. This should have a big influence, downward, on the stock price, I would think. Now, DOW maybe doesn't have the influence it once had, but I still think it is somewhat of a bellwhether. So, this blow, in turn, should really get the market selling.

What I would watch for is either the futures not opening fairly big down, or opening down and then turning straight up and really moving. These scenarios would be strong clues to me the market is in no mood to go down. I'm always watching for the ignoring of bad (or good) news. It seems like they don't want to drop this until perhaps after the start of the new year. So, this sets the stage for a nice clue as to the attitude for right now.

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Originally posted by jimkane

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Originally posted by mreiserer

quote:

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Originally posted by jimkane

I hadn't seen that artcle, but when doing my own count on this, I did see that the last two were technically after the ultimate bottom. I looked at the 'retest', the final shoulder of the head and shoulders bottom as still a part of the final death throes of the bear, and more likely still a part of that as opposed to a part of a launch of the new bull. This small stretch was based on all those 300+ days in the bear, and not one single day once the bull started off that second shoulder.

I don't disagree with the 300+ days can also happen at the very early stages of a rally sometimes, but I will add that they still seem to be a final end of the bear/correction more than a part of the new rally. Notice in the two examples from '97 and '98 that those were both right at the end of very serious corrections, and that no other 300+ days occurred after that in the entire rallies. Point is, although the 300+ days can happen at the end of the correction, using it as an indicator is really trying to pick a bottom, it may work, one in how many tries?

So far in this bear we have had 19 300+ days if my count is correct, and three days just a few points short of 300. So, give or take 22 times it didn't lead to much of a rally, as far as being an indicator that the bear was over, or that a significant rally was about to take place. In the end, yes, the person who first mentioned this should have descibed it more as a high probability stat and not an absolute that works for all bulls and bears. Nonetheless, it is a very telling and impressive factoid, in my opinion.

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My count is 17 since the top on 10/07 with 8 of them occurring in the last two months.

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What data source are you using for that count, M?

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esignal. Maybe I got it wrong.

I just ask because I get 19, plus 3 almost +300, via TeleChart.

I measured it in Qcharts. I went over it again and just found No.18.
Somewhere I am probably missing 19.

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Originally posted by jimkane

Okay, now here's a big clue coming, in my opinion. Today Kuwait said they are cancelling a $17.4 billion deal with DOW. DOW planned to used some of those funds for their acquisition of ROH. This is a big blow to DOW. This should have a big influence, downward, on the stock price, I would think. Now, DOW maybe doesn't have the influence it once had, but I still think it is somewhat of a bellwhether. So, this blow, in turn, should really get the market selling.

What I would watch for is either the futures not opening fairly big down, or opening down and then turning straight up and really moving. These scenarios would be strong clues to me the market is in no mood to go down. I'm always watching for the ignoring of bad (or good) news. It seems like they don't want to drop this until perhaps after the start of the new year. So, this sets the stage for a nice clue as to the attitude for right now.

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can't help but notice the cup that formed on Friday on the ES

Once again you called it right:
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/12/30/business/30markets.html?hp=&adxnnl=1&adxnnlx=1230584422-WIr+fi/gdV9K2ozEunz9Yw

Yes, but notice how they came in at 'lateral support' once again and saved it from what looked like a monster breakdown that everyone was watching for. Sometimes I find it almost comical to watch how obvious they are. But, on the other hand, if it is seemingly so predictable, that's a potential edge. I don't care what they do, as long as it moves.

yes, the double bottom was the obvious "line of defense" but I would mostly blame it on the real thin volume.
Who knows, if this was in the middle of January this might have not held.

What has my attention now is the possible completion of this pattern as what I would consider Wave 2 (a DB or flat). They are watching and reacting to gap levels like crazy. ES is at a triple top here which is exactly the gap opening/high on 12/1. Next one (gap high on 12/5) is exactly where the flat ABCD would play out.

I think the second chart is particularly telling. I agree with the conclusion, this market is nothing more than Euro-yen carry trade on, Euro-yen carry trade off. No balance, no participation, no depth, as I discussed in my last monthly commentary, just leverage/deleverage, risk on/risk off, and that's it. Skynet is totally sentient. How long, like in the movie, until the machines decide to vaporize the useless humans?

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/tale-two-decouplings