I thought I might try something different here, and see how it goes. It's quite difficult for me to post a lot to the various topics, especially with charts, since the method I use for posting charts is very cumbersome. Some charts can take me a half hour or more to put together. Since the charts I use for posting are not my 'working' charts, this work is duplicative.

I have various ideas and thoughts here and there about different things, and if I have a 'central clearing area' where I can just put out a sentence or two, pointing to something without doing the work, the members can do what assessment and analysis they want with the ideas, and post charts if they want, preferably to the respective areas they have for that topic. This way it would leave this topic more 'clean'. If you have a question or comment on what I was pointing out you could post that in here.

Let me know if you have any thoughts on this, or anything you think would be helpful/useful. Keep in mind I am not going to just tell you all my best setups in advance, especially if I plan to trade them, as that is not 'what I do' in here, or anywhere. I want to point out things that may need some work, and might go unnoticed otherwise, or are just of interest.

The 4pt failure is likely given the non trending action preceding the pattern's formation. But Im willing to take some shots here just in case we're getting a significant reaction off the area.who knows what they got in mind?...so if we are in a sustained bullish mode, i guess we should be buying all the foreclosed house we can find now and make a killing in real estate.So far im seeing more 'home for sale','reduced price' signs popping up like mushrooms all around my neighborhood.And who can afford financing nowadays with all those lenders being so reluctant to do business anyway.There a huge gap between what they say and what they actually do.Like, '...okay we got our bailout money and we are working on doing business back as usual again,bla blah...' but the fine prints says your name must be warren Buffet.Obviously they are even tighter than before just because they don't want to be in the same predicament as they were before the credit crisis.E
ven with rates being as low as they are...Zero% interest rate like in Japan and it didn't help them out of the mud. Too little too late . If u can stop an avalanche with a shovel, good luck with that...sorry for the ranting but things are getting too ridiculous.
but hey, let's trade and make some money !

T

T,

My suspicion is the 4-Point will get blown out, but there are two key factors I am watching because they play into the pattern holding. One factor is that, as you know, many patterns have extreme runs right into them that absolutely convince you they will get blown out. It is also a sign, though, of climactic action. It scares most out of taking the trade.

Next, we are set up for a sell the news event. We have the much anticipated stimulus package, which it is getting more and more clear to any astute observer is not much more than a big spending plan that will do little to nothing for the economy, and saddle us with more debt, and we have the Monday afternoon (Hmmm, what was your time symmetry factor?) Treasury press conference about the new 'bad bank' plan. One thing is for sure, this is going to be interesting, and will surely inspire some serious action.

I have a lot of things coming together across the board just above, including the standard ABCD in the S&P, so I will be watching if they shoot for that and then sell the news, too.

Here are two interesting articles. Personally, I think this whole thing is a joke, talking bullish in here and calling the bottom again. Arguing the valuations are awesome, and on and on. Calling the housing bottom in the next quarter 'for sure'. Hey, maybe the bear market is over, maybe it will turn out to be a great time to buy for the long run in here, but you can't argue that based on valuations.

And you can't argue about housing based on some programs they might have some day, or on a bump up in sales of existing homes that is due almost solely to foreclosures and short sales (look at new home sales and you can see that). In the town near where I live there are so many for sale signs it almost literally looks like the entire town is for sale. So much commercial space open now and businesses closed it's unreal. Yep, I think a turn is at hand...


http://www.investorsinsight.com/blogs/thoughts_from_the_frontline/archive/2009/02/06/further-thoughts-on-the-continuing-crisis.aspx

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/Still-eagerness-call-bottom/story.aspx?guid=%7B38CD6BFF%2D6D06%2D4EDC%2DBDE0%2DF46556A0B041%7D

Wow, anyone besides roofer and I follow Terry Laundry? You know he's calling for DOW 2000-3400? I am looking forward to his Monday update, because he, like everyone else (even the somewhat okay Fast Money guys on CNBC), thinks we are now in a bear bounce that has some legs (invalidating his 746 call, for now). Anyway, he has some really cool longer-term cycle analysis that lines up with what I had been discovering myself. If you haven't checked him out, you should.

http://www.ttheory.typepad.com/

Scroll down, after his recent reports, and look at everything from the Jan 20, 2009 analysis for the longer-term material.

Imagine, S&P 200-350, where the P/E's would be swung to the low end, just as mentioned in my last commentary. Imagine the talking heads! Imagine the perma-bulls that are goading the buyers in here. What I wouldn't give to see that. Unfortunately, it's like that old saying: If you bet the sun is going to explode and you win, what do you win? Imagine the world and economy at S&P 200 :-(

a good friend has worked as the locksmith and cabinetmaker at the highest regarded hospital with 3 locations here. on sept 15 the staff was told that they had a billion on hand and that all the major expansion projects would be completed this spring. on nov 15th they were told that essentially the money was gone and that all construction would be moth balled indefinitely. there is a bridge over a major road connecting two buildings that was 80% complete. the city is now telling them finish or tear down..the staff is being gutted..suppliers are refusing to ship, the bills are so past due...yet not one word in the press about the imminent demise of a great institution..i wonder how many thousands of similar time bombs are waiting..

I'm guessing a lot if the stories I know about, ones like this one you tell, are any indication. I really think most people are deluded about what is going on, many are outright lying and covering up, and I think it is a lot worse than 'they' are saying, or we, in general, think. That's why I find it so laughable that the main preoccupation with talking head TV is when is the new bull starting. These are not bull conditions, and even if the market is forward thinking, and even if you say six months forward, I simply can't comprehend that in six months we are doing great, hence the market should be going up now. I can't imagine any scenario where this isn't a depression. The only argument I see is is it a very small depression, or something worse. Everyone is so busy predicting it's over or how soon it will be over that they are going to get blindsided when reality hits. That's my take. It could be wrong, and I'd be the happiest guy in the world if it was, but I don't think it is.

More and more people are now using the 'D' word. Pimco's Gross, Strauss-Kahn, and so on. Here's the latest from S-K and the IMF:

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601080&sid=a6aaWZ8ab8yU&refer=asia

hey guys hope your all well thx for the post and links very interesting reading indeed.


Jim can i ask I have some big things happenging around the 910 level in the es jim you mentioned levels just above here would you be willing to say I have things gong on before 910 but nt as conclusive giveen the news driven mkt we are in or is the slope of hope because they have ground it up on nthg othe r than hot air as usual because the economic numbers say we shud be lower but wat do i know

Nick,

My main two levels, really two sub-groupings, are around 884-887 and 894-897, give or take, rounded to the nearest point. But this all assumes the 4-Point CP right here doesn't play out (notice, too, the 1.272 ABCD in the CD leg (ABCD's in CD legs of 4-Points seems to be fine, unlike standard ABCD's), almost perfectly overlapped with the .886). These are my primary ABCD areas. If the ABCD doesn't hold, then I am looking a bit higher next, at the 'wave 3' spots. You should post a chart (not in here, start a topic for this) showing your 910 area.

There's also Roofer's 'Gap .886' (feb 29th) in the ES'4PC's overlap you've mentioned, J. That's another cool factor to consider too. My working chart has plenty of things going into each of the patterns areas too.And in the context of a Rollover in the higher time frames, strong squeeze moves are common,i think.And that can happen at every fib areas along the way down during the rollover stab formation. Add some sentiment factor to the mix, check out the put/call ratio here.Would u be a buyer or a seller with the current very low reading? how about VIX? Things just don't support a bullish context while the recent price action moves higher.That might change later though but as it stands right now, I am not too excited about the bullish case.
My 2 pennies worth,
T

I think the second chart is particularly telling. I agree with the conclusion, this market is nothing more than Euro-yen carry trade on, Euro-yen carry trade off. No balance, no participation, no depth, as I discussed in my last monthly commentary, just leverage/deleverage, risk on/risk off, and that's it. Skynet is totally sentient. How long, like in the movie, until the machines decide to vaporize the useless humans?

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/tale-two-decouplings