I thought I might try something different here, and see how it goes. It's quite difficult for me to post a lot to the various topics, especially with charts, since the method I use for posting charts is very cumbersome. Some charts can take me a half hour or more to put together. Since the charts I use for posting are not my 'working' charts, this work is duplicative.

I have various ideas and thoughts here and there about different things, and if I have a 'central clearing area' where I can just put out a sentence or two, pointing to something without doing the work, the members can do what assessment and analysis they want with the ideas, and post charts if they want, preferably to the respective areas they have for that topic. This way it would leave this topic more 'clean'. If you have a question or comment on what I was pointing out you could post that in here.

Let me know if you have any thoughts on this, or anything you think would be helpful/useful. Keep in mind I am not going to just tell you all my best setups in advance, especially if I plan to trade them, as that is not 'what I do' in here, or anywhere. I want to point out things that may need some work, and might go unnoticed otherwise, or are just of interest.

Well, that's the thing for me. 'They' say they know what they are doing, and the pundits are cheering them wildly today (because the pundits only care about one thing and one thing only, and that is making the stock market go up so that their no talent backsides can be covered with their long only approaches). But I am quite nervous that they have zero idea what they are doing, they are just twisting knobs and when the market goes up, they keep twisting those knobs. I truly believe they have zero idea what the aftereffects will be, or what the unintended consequences may be, and I feel they may be brutal.

As long as the market goes up, and housing gets going again, that's all that matters. Free market price discovery be damned, just force that SOB up no matter what. And look, it's working. Until the USD collapses and they blow the new 'world's biggest bubble' in treasuries, and so on. These guys only know one thing, and that is to solve the bursting of a bubble with another, bigger bubble. I thought the game was finally over, but as I have said elsewhere, I wonder what the next bubble they will blow up will be? I guess now we know. Gold (and hence oil and the other commodities) and Treasuries. Can ayone say $10,000 gold? No, not $2,000 gold like all the pundits say, $10,000. If they keep this up, that will be cheap gold...

Exactly, how do we solve one bubble popping? By creating an even bigger one. We are all living in a virtual reality already.

Well, I know this all sounds melodramatic, but I think we are witnessing the end of the United States as we know it. I think a currency crisis could manifest at any time. We'll just wake up and the dollar will be 'devalued' 50% or something like that. Half your life savings gone, oh, well. That's perhaps a best case scenario. When the ruble was devalued, if the story I heard was correct, they got 10 cents on the dollar, so to speak, and had one week to convert to the newly issued currency. No matter how this plays out, in my opinion, they are now doing the most insane, maniacal, totally 'they have no idea what could happen' things, and the potential for uncontrollable unintended side-effects is just frightening.

And note that part of this new plan is predicated on the idea that asset prices don't go down from here. If they do, they don't say what the consequences would be, since they assume it won't happen, but we can all figure out what they would be, and it will be grave. I honestly thought the critical point for humankind would be based on nukes, or bioterror, or global warming, or some overpopulation issue, but it looks like a totally preventable and totally forseeable financial crisis is going to be the catalyst for what I think is going to be the most significant and ugly period in human history. Call me Dr. Gloom, but I think they have zero clue what they are doing, and they are twisting knobs at an unprecidented level on a machine they have no idea how it works or what the knobs do. I'm sick about this...

Terry Laundry's commentary for today is quite interesting:

http://www.ttheory.typepad.com/

Here's a cool article on bear market rallies vs. new bull markets. Particularly look at the chart. So, as I've said before, if this is the start of a new bull, it will be one of those extremely rare exceptions. In fact, the single exception to a new bull market starting like this, of the 34 bulls since 1900, was 1929, and we all know what happened when that one ended (wait, there was a 'bull market' between 1929 and the end of the great depression???). That's not to say that the bull wasn't highly tradable from the long side, only that it was a cyclical bull in a secular bear trend, and down it went. Such may be the case even if a bull did start here. Most people say/assume that a new bull always goes to new highs, erasing the entire bear, and then some. That's not what usually happens in a secular bear trend. A new bull may go to the 50% point, and then end and plunge to serious new lows. That's some kind of a bull for a buy and hold investor... Awesome for traders who are prepared for the end of the cycle, but beyond brutal for those sure that new highs are coming.

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/Bear-market-rally-new-bull/story.aspx?guid=%7BF4539F5D%2D2B3F%2D4EE5%2DB000%2DC84C617B4058%7D

Looking good for another +300 day today if this keeps going (like I said about how hard it would be to get me off that long side off those ABCD's). That will be number 22 for this bear market. Lotsa buyers, still. My gut would say that when they finish the end of quarter window dressing this thing will fall amazingly hard of its own weight, but I'm starting to be a believer. Up 3%, 4%, 5% per day, every day, especially Asia. Throw in same 6%-7% days. At this rate we will be at new all-time highs in another 2-3 weeks. Imagine that. I just don't see any corrections more than a few points. Nothing but buyers. It's one of the biggest unbalanced runs I've ever seen, only paralleled by the super-bad news drops last fall. Quite impressive, especially for such light volume.

Here's a curious thing. In going back and looking at uncorrected bear rallies up in this entire bear since Oct 2007, on a percentage basis, the biggest one I found was Oct 10-14. In three trading days it went up just over 26.3%. The same exact run now would put this at 841. Hmmmm. Point is, we have seen multiple unchecked corrections in this bear up to this level. We are now tied for the biggest, give or take. We may set a new record, but with the quarter end window dressing so close, I'm ready. Somewhere from here to M's 850 I suspect this thing will be totally out of gas. If it can continue above that without correction, then something that I think is unprecedented is unfolding.

Well, who knows, surely not me, but the most significant spot I have above actually comes in around the low 880's area, depending on how long it takes. If it was quick, maybe as high as 900. But I have to say, I'm getting prepped for the next bigger area, just over 1,000 (around 1017), and then the next area after that. I'm starting to think that unless we get some bad news, really bad news, it will be a simple impossibility to drive this market down. Yes, I feel there are lots of shoes to drop out there, but I could see them all ignored unless it was a bombshell. I think part of the big recovery plan is to engineer a monster drive in the market, to get everyone back in, further perpetuating the run up.

Whether they sell the end of quarter window dressing stupidness or not will be a huge clue. Whether they can handle M's 850 area is another huge clue. And if they get to my 880's area with no pause, that's a big clue. And what happens there, another big clue. This is looking more and more like my old 'ride until close' intraday saying. This is getting easier and easier from a swing perspective. Ride the calls, go play golf, don't even suspect it went down, just come home with a smile on your face, ask how much it went up again today, lather, rinse, repeat, until it stops happening. Maybe that's not until Dow 10K, or 15K, who knows. Not much work to do until then but ride calls and play golf. See ya on the links :-)

Trannies up over 10% at the high today. A major index up over 10% in one day, after being up huge before this. This is just mind-boggling to me... And on a day when crude is up big.

Lots and lots of cycles hit this week, mostly on Monday. This could be really interesting. And I'm watching TV right now, and this show is just all bulls, saying this is the time to go wild. They opened the show saying how this is the best four weeks in the Dow since 1933 and the best for the NAZ ever. It's just all bulls, but not only bulls, bulls that think the S&P up 23% and the Trannies up 43% is a great time to buy. If this is a trap and it gets sprung, the pain will be horrendous. And if it goes further and is still a trap, the pain will be even more. That would destroy sentiment at new lows, which is needed for a bottom, IMO. We'll see.

I think the second chart is particularly telling. I agree with the conclusion, this market is nothing more than Euro-yen carry trade on, Euro-yen carry trade off. No balance, no participation, no depth, as I discussed in my last monthly commentary, just leverage/deleverage, risk on/risk off, and that's it. Skynet is totally sentient. How long, like in the movie, until the machines decide to vaporize the useless humans?

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/tale-two-decouplings