I thought I might try something different here, and see how it goes. It's quite difficult for me to post a lot to the various topics, especially with charts, since the method I use for posting charts is very cumbersome. Some charts can take me a half hour or more to put together. Since the charts I use for posting are not my 'working' charts, this work is duplicative.

I have various ideas and thoughts here and there about different things, and if I have a 'central clearing area' where I can just put out a sentence or two, pointing to something without doing the work, the members can do what assessment and analysis they want with the ideas, and post charts if they want, preferably to the respective areas they have for that topic. This way it would leave this topic more 'clean'. If you have a question or comment on what I was pointing out you could post that in here.

Let me know if you have any thoughts on this, or anything you think would be helpful/useful. Keep in mind I am not going to just tell you all my best setups in advance, especially if I plan to trade them, as that is not 'what I do' in here, or anywhere. I want to point out things that may need some work, and might go unnoticed otherwise, or are just of interest.

Wow, they really don't like the bailout failing in the Senate tonight. After the steep sell into the close, it's down another 45 or so ES points, trading 828, and looking like it could go a lot more. YM futures trading just above 8200. This is particulary interesting since this all started off a key area at Monday's high, and the way the bulls were dominating, it didn't look like this would ever roll no matter what. The real clue for me was when BAC announced 35,000 layoffs and the market didn't shrug it off, it started to sell a bit. That was the first clear change in character from the 'ignore the bad news' approach it has had lately. If it was still in that mode, it would have simply laughed at this setback in the next bailout, say they will pass another version this weekend after scaring the pants off everyone, and it will be fine. Instead, they react to the news. It's going to be fascinating to watch how it handles the last lateral support, where it is now. Below that, there's only the low of the entire bear, from a 'standard' technical analysis standpoint.

Yes Jim seems a real concern for the mkt funny things is they have 2 bad scenarios to work on either throw future tax payers money/debt at the motor industry or dont and see the mkt wipe 10 times that amount of in everyone stocks those guys at the senate would rather use other peoples money to stem their own being wiped out regardless of the muttering s they make so this weekend could be very interesting.

Here's an interesting read:

http://www.investorsinsight.com/blogs/john_mauldins_outside_the_box/archive/2008/12/15/semi-annual-u-s-economic-outlook-collapsing-on-schedule.aspx

Another interesting article:

http://www.tradingmarkets.com/.site/stocks/commentary/gkitermi/Who-is-Going-to-Bail-Out-the-FED-79585.cfm

thx Jim for the 2 articles great reading certanly makes you think the first one, mind you your monthly addition made me think to suck all the bulls in and get the mk back to 11000 that would be some feat just to crush it agn.

quote:

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Originally posted by jimkane

This is a repost from another topic, so it doesn't 'get lost'. I thought I was posting in here, and then I realized I wasn't...

Here's a little factoid I thought was so curious I'd post it. In all my years studying the market I didn't know this, and all the market people I know that I mentioned it to didn't know it either, even one guy whose 'specialty' is market history.

How many 300+ point days were there in the '00-'02/'03 bear market? 12
How many 300+ point days have we had so far in this '07-'08 bear market? 6
Now, the fun part. How many 300+ point days did we have in the '02/'03-'07 bull market, which was the longest running cyclical bull in history? You figure 30? 40? 20? Nope, zero. Zip, nada, none, a big fat horse collar.

You see, 300+ up days in the INDU is a bear market and recession phenomenon, not a bull market one. So, think twice when we have a monster up day and they immediately say on TV that the bear is dead, long live the bull. When I'm hoping for more bear action, I root for 300+ up days, because I know the statistics.

I first read about this on John Maudlin's blog, to give him credit. I'm not sure if he did the workup himself, or found it elsewhere.

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Just found this article. It's from August. Not sure if you've seen it:
http://seekingalpha.com/article/89536-dow-jones-300-point-moves-and-bear-markets

I hadn't seen that artcle, but when doing my own count on this, I did see that the last two were technically after the ultimate bottom. I looked at the 'retest', the final shoulder of the head and shoulders bottom as still a part of the final death throes of the bear, and more likely still a part of that as opposed to a part of a launch of the new bull. This small stretch was based on all those 300+ days in the bear, and not one single day once the bull started off that second shoulder.

I don't disagree with the 300+ days can also happen at the very early stages of a rally sometimes, but I will add that they still seem to be a final end of the bear/correction more than a part of the new rally. Notice in the two examples from '97 and '98 that those were both right at the end of very serious corrections, and that no other 300+ days occurred after that in the entire rallies. Point is, although the 300+ days can happen at the end of the correction, using it as an indicator is really trying to pick a bottom, it may work, one in how many tries?

So far in this bear we have had 19 300+ days if my count is correct, and three days just a few points short of 300. So, give or take 22 times it didn't lead to much of a rally, as far as being an indicator that the bear was over, or that a significant rally was about to take place. In the end, yes, the person who first mentioned this should have descibed it more as a high probability stat and not an absolute that works for all bulls and bears. Nonetheless, it is a very telling and impressive factoid, in my opinion.

Here's another interesting read for those that like stuff on the economy. It's not trading, but if you like this kinda stuff, this one is worth the read.

http://www.investorsinsight.com/blogs/john_mauldins_outside_the_box/archive/2008/12/22/a-daily-snapshot-of-market-moving-developments.aspx

quote:

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Originally posted by jimkane

I hadn't seen that artcle, but when doing my own count on this, I did see that the last two were technically after the ultimate bottom. I looked at the 'retest', the final shoulder of the head and shoulders bottom as still a part of the final death throes of the bear, and more likely still a part of that as opposed to a part of a launch of the new bull. This small stretch was based on all those 300+ days in the bear, and not one single day once the bull started off that second shoulder.

I don't disagree with the 300+ days can also happen at the very early stages of a rally sometimes, but I will add that they still seem to be a final end of the bear/correction more than a part of the new rally. Notice in the two examples from '97 and '98 that those were both right at the end of very serious corrections, and that no other 300+ days occurred after that in the entire rallies. Point is, although the 300+ days can happen at the end of the correction, using it as an indicator is really trying to pick a bottom, it may work, one in how many tries?

So far in this bear we have had 19 300+ days if my count is correct, and three days just a few points short of 300. So, give or take 22 times it didn't lead to much of a rally, as far as being an indicator that the bear was over, or that a significant rally was about to take place. In the end, yes, the person who first mentioned this should have descibed it more as a high probability stat and not an absolute that works for all bulls and bears. Nonetheless, it is a very telling and impressive factoid, in my opinion.

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My count is 17 since the top on 10/07 with 8 of them occurring in the last two months.

Interesting article:
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/12/26/world/asia/26addiction.html?hp

I think the second chart is particularly telling. I agree with the conclusion, this market is nothing more than Euro-yen carry trade on, Euro-yen carry trade off. No balance, no participation, no depth, as I discussed in my last monthly commentary, just leverage/deleverage, risk on/risk off, and that's it. Skynet is totally sentient. How long, like in the movie, until the machines decide to vaporize the useless humans?

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/tale-two-decouplings