I thought I might try something different here, and see how it goes. It's quite difficult for me to post a lot to the various topics, especially with charts, since the method I use for posting charts is very cumbersome. Some charts can take me a half hour or more to put together. Since the charts I use for posting are not my 'working' charts, this work is duplicative.

I have various ideas and thoughts here and there about different things, and if I have a 'central clearing area' where I can just put out a sentence or two, pointing to something without doing the work, the members can do what assessment and analysis they want with the ideas, and post charts if they want, preferably to the respective areas they have for that topic. This way it would leave this topic more 'clean'. If you have a question or comment on what I was pointing out you could post that in here.

Let me know if you have any thoughts on this, or anything you think would be helpful/useful. Keep in mind I am not going to just tell you all my best setups in advance, especially if I plan to trade them, as that is not 'what I do' in here, or anywhere. I want to point out things that may need some work, and might go unnoticed otherwise, or are just of interest.

http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2009/04/analyst-wells-fargo-to-show-120-billion.html

Now, after reading that, look at the price of WFC, how much it is up, and how it popped on the recent 'good news'. Same old story, same old song and dance, my friend.

This guy is a little more positive than I am, but I truly believe in the short-term fake engineered recovery for political reasons scenario, hence we may see a 'cyclical bull' before the next secular wave down.

http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2009/04/guest-post-fake-recovery.html

Seems like every company is knocking the cover off the ball, beating estimates by a lot. The talk was we go down now for a bit because earnings will be so bad, in terms of missing estimates. Yet they are killing 'em, big profits everywhere. So, what does that imply for the market???

insiders need to unload their shares into demand volume.Now they are stimulating crowd participation and hyping it up ...classic pump n dump...imo.

Ex-aaaaaccccctttt-lllllyyyy, T, as Scott used to say.

So, I was just listening to David Tice on Bloomberg. He was on opposite a guy who was super-duper-duper bullish. This guy was loving the fat profits he was making, and was calling for much, much higher prices. The bear is long since dead, this is a super-strong new bull, and so on. Tice mentioned a little know fact. He said there has only been three times in history when the t-bills went to zero rates. First time: 1930, and we know how much further the market had to go from there. The second time was 1989 in Japan. The Nikkei then went from about 40,000 to 6,000. The third time is now. What he was pointing out was that this only happens when we have severe structural defects in the system. Notice how in all three cases they were preceded by monster run ups in asset prices and misallocation of capital.

It seems to me this secular bear will last, as I have been thinking, until 2017, with crazy 'bull' moves along the way where everyone gets giddy bullish. This is how it works. Look at the big rally after 1929 got started. I wonder how bullish people were there. This market may well hit those higher targets I mentioned, it may well go to May/June, or even Sept or more. It may be good in the long run if it does, as that's part of the cycle. It has to go up a lot, get a lot of suckers in, then crush them again. I'm thinking this doesn't have enough suckers in yet. I want it to go down, get crushed, clean up the system so it can rebuild anew, bit it may be a 'false start' if it goes down too soon. So, we almost have to wish for up, wish for more BS on TV and more giggling idiots, as hard as they are to take, before the move down, to do the best overall.

Tice, when asked where he saw the S&P at year end he said 500, on its way to 350 (I think I have that right, he might have said 550 on its way to 300). The other guy laughed and basically said what amounted to that was beyond stupid, and went on with his valuations and other nonsense. Note that for Tice's scenario to play out, in my opinion, we would have to have true deflation Great Depression and Japan style, and this would still have to take place despite the Fed and gov's determination to print money in unlimited supply. And I don't see how this can go on without hyper-inflation in commodities (I think we can have massive deflation in houses and stocks and hyper-inflation in commodities. I think just as 'stagflation' was coined in the 70's, we will coin a new term where there is deflation and hyper-inflation at the same time.), and serious rebellion from the public. We'll see, but it doesn't seem like it will be good no matter what. Unless the bull was right and things are awesome now...

if you think tices levels for where the es is heading are low elliot wave have a low level for dow by the time this is over of 400 yes thats right 400 for the dow now what would have to happen for it to get that bad within the sytem but only time will tell, one thing is for sure nature will always find a way to correct imabalances no matter what the goverments of the world wish and as far a s I can see the goverments are still doing the we can fix this problem with the same people who caused meanwhile producing money out of thin air like we did your profits before the crap hit the fan joke I do not beleive for one second as clever as they think they are with the leverage of debt produced worlwide with fiat curreny they will ever be able to spend their way out of it without it causing multiple problems that just lead to the same path dwn for the dow and every other stock market that has people participating and buying stocks because every tom dick and harry comes on and says we are at multi year valucations and stocks have only one way to go we all know when we reach record extremes in optimism which we will I have no doubt that will without be the time to sit back and watch nature unleash its joker and I watch and wait patiently for this time.

So, I just heard they are delaying the results of the stress test. The reason? So 'the Fed and the banks can debate the results'. Notice they said 'debate', not 'discuss'. I can hear it now...

Banks: Okay, so what are we gonna do about this? We'll need several trillion more now.

Fed: Well, then you'll get them.

Banks: How? Funnel more money from AIG et al to us like last time?

Fed: You'll get the money. If anything, you might even get higher earnings this quarter than last.

Banks: Okay, that part is way cool. After Morgan's new idea to get around bonuses and leverage back up again, a few trillion more in 'profits' would be nice. But here's a worry. If we announce we need trillions more the shorts will kill us. They'll drive us way down again.

Fed: Man, don't you guys ever learn? Let 'em drive you way down, then we'll scoop in and buy a bunch of cheap shares for next to nothing. Then we'll run 'em up again, and then repeat the process. The public will never catch on, they never do...

Banks: Okay, I'm glad we debated all this, and got on the same page. As long as we gets lots more money for doing nothing, and the taxpayers pay for it, and we still get to make obscene 'profits' for doing absolutely zero, and get them even if we do great harm, then we are on board, 100% behind you.

Fed: Great, I knew you'd come around to our way of thinking.

For those of you that trade commodities, take a look at beans and meal on daily and weekly charts. If those aren't ABCD's watch out.

And if you can do a weekly chart, look at cotton, and that 64+ area. You see that line? And the .447 here?

I think the second chart is particularly telling. I agree with the conclusion, this market is nothing more than Euro-yen carry trade on, Euro-yen carry trade off. No balance, no participation, no depth, as I discussed in my last monthly commentary, just leverage/deleverage, risk on/risk off, and that's it. Skynet is totally sentient. How long, like in the movie, until the machines decide to vaporize the useless humans?

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/tale-two-decouplings