I thought I might try something different here, and see how it goes. It's quite difficult for me to post a lot to the various topics, especially with charts, since the method I use for posting charts is very cumbersome. Some charts can take me a half hour or more to put together. Since the charts I use for posting are not my 'working' charts, this work is duplicative.

I have various ideas and thoughts here and there about different things, and if I have a 'central clearing area' where I can just put out a sentence or two, pointing to something without doing the work, the members can do what assessment and analysis they want with the ideas, and post charts if they want, preferably to the respective areas they have for that topic. This way it would leave this topic more 'clean'. If you have a question or comment on what I was pointing out you could post that in here.

Let me know if you have any thoughts on this, or anything you think would be helpful/useful. Keep in mind I am not going to just tell you all my best setups in advance, especially if I plan to trade them, as that is not 'what I do' in here, or anywhere. I want to point out things that may need some work, and might go unnoticed otherwise, or are just of interest.

Anyone notice the grains today, or are my charts wrong???

i seen the grains...they exploded.

Corn was up about 10%, the other grains up big, too. This, as the DX sits on the last support area I have...

looks like the next move in the dollar will set the tone.. Everything poised to go higher....Energies,grains,metals

I'm not sure if this link will be valid forever, but for now here it is. Some may say I'm being morbid, or overly dramatic, but when I start hearing about a big Value Added Tax (VAT) coming soon, and all the other taxes I think are about to fall on us, and Wall St. business as usual (I just read they are bringing back the CDO big time, as one example), and the G20 just the same old same old, I can't help but feel this sums it up very nicely:

http://i86.photobucket.com/albums/k109/Diamond_Oz/Endgame.jpg

Here's a fun little thing from the 'Goofy Jim' bin. If you aren't in the mood for a Goofy Jim thing, or if you don't like classic rock, then skip this one. Every day I muse over the total looting and ruination of this thing we used to call 'America'. I weep and mourn for what we once had, but is now gone, destroyed. It may still look about the same in many ways, but I think it is gone, trashed, we just haven't seen it all come to the surface yet. So, as I listen to my classic rock stations, I hear one of my old favorite songs now and again, and lately all I think about is the mess we are in. So, for those of you that don't have all the classics on CD like I do, here's a youtube version of the song, and the lyrics at the next link so you can follow along and understand what I mean. Maybe you get it, maybe not, but for me, it fits the situation like a glove.



http://www.elyrics.net/read/s/styx-lyrics/suite-madame-blue-lyrics.html

P.S. For those that won't get this until maybe later in the song, Suite Madame Blue is not a girl.

Here's something kind of cool. It lines up with what I have been thinking all along.

http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2009/08/secular-bear-markets.png

Now, this is a composite of 29 secular bear markets (see the full article: http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/10/the-most-hated-rally-in-wall-street-history/). If we do rally to the 'average' bounce point of 70%, that's 1132, what a coincidence. Then a drop down of 25%, that's 849 (not a 25% pullback, 25% off that 1132, which would be very close to a .618 retrace off the March lows). Then a trading range. But add the times up on that chart of his and you get April 2017! Recall I said the secular trend should end in 2017, based on cycle studies. His compilation of 29 secular cycles shows the same thing.

Now, two places I disagree here a bit. I don't think this up leg here should go 17 months, it has been way too fast and strong so far. I don't see us adding only 70 ES points, a good three day run, in the next ten months, and then down. I can't see a narrow trading range for ten months, or a complex, narrow range top that takes that long to form. I also think we may see new lows. Although some bear cycles don't set new lows after this point, many do, and this cycle is extremely severe in terms of fundamentals, so if any would, this one would be it.

'29 was severe fundamentally and look at how much further it went down. So, I would really like to see a lower low, to a 1.128 or preferably a 1.272 off this bounce. But maybe we go up for 5 more years with no 10% correction, just like Laszlo says. Who knows. But if this follows the usual secular cycle, that chart shows a pretty good idea of what to expect. You can also see the very same pattern play out in a much shorter time span on endless charts, if you just look for it. It's a pattern I have seen for years and years as I've studied charts.

quote:

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Originally posted by jimkane
Here's a fun little thing from the 'Goofy Jim' bin. If you aren't in the mood for a Goofy Jim thing, or if you don't like classic rock, then skip this one. Every day I muse over the total looting and ruination of this thing we used to call 'America'. I weep and mourn for what we once had, but is now gone, destroyed. It may still look about the same in many ways, but I think it is gone, trashed, we just haven't seen it all come to the surface yet. So, as I listen to my classic rock stations, I hear one of my old favorite songs now and again, and lately all I think about is the mess we are in. So, for those of you that don't have all the classics on CD like I do, here's a youtube version of the song, and the lyrics at the next link so you can follow along and understand what I mean. Maybe you get it, maybe not, but for me, it fits the situation like a glove.



http://www.elyrics.net/read/s/styx-lyrics/suite-madame-blue-lyrics.html

P.S. For those that won't get this until maybe later in the song, Suite Madame Blue is not a girl.

Fitting lyrics. Aren't we all sick and tired of Madame Blue....

Yep.

If you've got a few minutes to kill and can tolerate rap music, this is pretty cool. If you really want to see all that is contained in there you'd have to pause and rewind quite a bit, as it goes by too fast to see it all. I love the one image of Ron Paul with the paddles, standing over the constitution, the flat line on the monitor, and the pictures of the founding fathers in the background (4:38). I know this sounds crazy, but it seems like only Ron Paul can save us now. That's not a political statement, but one that comes from having listened to everyone and everything, and concluding that he seems to be the only one saying things that make mathematical sense to me. I also saw that when that one state (I forgot which one now) put out a list and sent it to all law enforcement listing ten things to watch out for to spot domestic terrorists, Ron Paul bumper stickers and talking pro Ron Paul was one of them, and any conspriracy talk about the Fed or them being bad was another one. Pretty unreal. I need to find a link to that list. It was on Zero Hedge.

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/end-fed-soon-night-club-near-you

I think the second chart is particularly telling. I agree with the conclusion, this market is nothing more than Euro-yen carry trade on, Euro-yen carry trade off. No balance, no participation, no depth, as I discussed in my last monthly commentary, just leverage/deleverage, risk on/risk off, and that's it. Skynet is totally sentient. How long, like in the movie, until the machines decide to vaporize the useless humans?

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/tale-two-decouplings