I thought I might try something different here, and see how it goes. It's quite difficult for me to post a lot to the various topics, especially with charts, since the method I use for posting charts is very cumbersome. Some charts can take me a half hour or more to put together. Since the charts I use for posting are not my 'working' charts, this work is duplicative.
I have various ideas and thoughts here and there about different things, and if I have a 'central clearing area' where I can just put out a sentence or two, pointing to something without doing the work, the members can do what assessment and analysis they want with the ideas, and post charts if they want, preferably to the respective areas they have for that topic. This way it would leave this topic more 'clean'. If you have a question or comment on what I was pointing out you could post that in here.
Let me know if you have any thoughts on this, or anything you think would be helpful/useful. Keep in mind I am not going to just tell you all my best setups in advance, especially if I plan to trade them, as that is not 'what I do' in here, or anywhere. I want to point out things that may need some work, and might go unnoticed otherwise, or are just of interest.
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RO
roofer
Rep: 3,689
Posts: 3,574
nick-if ''everyone'' includes me.. then let me say i no longer read anything except here and mg and dont know dont care which way the market goes as long as i am trading the tools well.so i am ignorant of what everyone is thinking or saying... it was hard not to run into the complaining about the late friday ramp in the general net.... strictly based on the tools,OF COURSE the ramp occured.. every tool i use said the computers were about to get aggressive...in stating i was looking for ramp, it was strictly based on the tools...
JI
jimkane
Rep: 3,058
Posts: 33,089
Okay, folks, 942 area hit. What's going to happen? Been a long wait. I posted that area first week of April on the website...
NI
nick taylor-stoddard
Rep: 0
Posts: 33
roofer I only read these pages butI listen to other sources, but like all who post in hear I make my decisions based on my read of action and take the consequences of it if i so chosse to act my if was not meant as rudeness just a reference to everyone who shares roofer so apologies if you took it to mean anything else I dont post much I am new hear but read you guys regularly and appreciate you all sharing your insights.
JI
jimkane
Rep: 3,058
Posts: 33,089
I just saw a headline on TV, 'The bond market versus the Fed'. How funny, what did I just say in my latest commentary?
JI
jimkane
Rep: 3,058
Posts: 33,089
For fun, read this one:
http://xtrends.blogspot.com/
Read the June 9 post at 5:47 PM. Follow up to see what else he posts. It really, really does seem like this will keep going up forever, and it looks like M's analysis may be right, and this looks ready for a big upside pop, and roofer has shown the much higher area this may want, but still, I also can't help but feel the S&P should be in the 300's and no amount of manipulation is going to stop that. They can only hold it for so long, then it goes. It would likely be an unrelated shock event, and then they'll say the market was doing fine, until this. If only this didn't happen, the market would have kept going. But there are events all the time, that's the world we live in. They can be ignored, or they can collapse a market, it depends on the underlying state of the market at the time. Given all we get now, day after day, is great news how things are really starting to turn around, and how the banks are pretty darn good now, I think it is a house of illusionary cards. They can keep pushing, but a day of reckoning may be coming. This isn't the same as a cyclical business cycle and then up it goes. This is a secular cycle. As I always say, we'll see.
http://xtrends.blogspot.com/
Read the June 9 post at 5:47 PM. Follow up to see what else he posts. It really, really does seem like this will keep going up forever, and it looks like M's analysis may be right, and this looks ready for a big upside pop, and roofer has shown the much higher area this may want, but still, I also can't help but feel the S&P should be in the 300's and no amount of manipulation is going to stop that. They can only hold it for so long, then it goes. It would likely be an unrelated shock event, and then they'll say the market was doing fine, until this. If only this didn't happen, the market would have kept going. But there are events all the time, that's the world we live in. They can be ignored, or they can collapse a market, it depends on the underlying state of the market at the time. Given all we get now, day after day, is great news how things are really starting to turn around, and how the banks are pretty darn good now, I think it is a house of illusionary cards. They can keep pushing, but a day of reckoning may be coming. This isn't the same as a cyclical business cycle and then up it goes. This is a secular cycle. As I always say, we'll see.
NI
nick taylor-stoddard
Rep: 0
Posts: 33
well bearing in mind the banks were giving a clean bill of health via the feds stress tests 2 things stuck out on subprime loans the stress test was expected 21-28 pct of those loans go bad so far 40% of those loans are 30 days overdue and unemployment according to fed worst case scenario under the tests 10.4% we are at 9.5% now so they were not very stressful at all so your right jim it is an illusion. but everyone seems to be buying it. something feels very manipulated like a nobel laureat economist saying the recession is over interesting statistic. I heard the other day in the last 3 recessions highest jobless claim number was -375 in this one over 600 but now it seems -375 is considered great the lunacy is still alive
JI
jimkane
Rep: 3,058
Posts: 33,089
Too bad we don't have an ES section for today. Boy, they don't like the note auction there. It has a decent bid to cover, though. I guess it will snap back, then?
JI
jimkane
Rep: 3,058
Posts: 33,089
Ah, it was a dutch auction so they could get it all sold, went off at 3.99%, which was higher than expected.
MR
mreiserer
Rep: 110
Posts: 2,220
yeah, too bad. If they want to snap it back up this would be the spot right here. beige book at 2pm
JI
jimkane
Rep: 3,058
Posts: 33,089
I think the second chart is particularly telling. I agree with the conclusion, this market is nothing more than Euro-yen carry trade on, Euro-yen carry trade off. No balance, no participation, no depth, as I discussed in my last monthly commentary, just leverage/deleverage, risk on/risk off, and that's it. Skynet is totally sentient. How long, like in the movie, until the machines decide to vaporize the useless humans?
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/tale-two-decouplings
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/tale-two-decouplings