I thought I might try something different here, and see how it goes. It's quite difficult for me to post a lot to the various topics, especially with charts, since the method I use for posting charts is very cumbersome. Some charts can take me a half hour or more to put together. Since the charts I use for posting are not my 'working' charts, this work is duplicative.

I have various ideas and thoughts here and there about different things, and if I have a 'central clearing area' where I can just put out a sentence or two, pointing to something without doing the work, the members can do what assessment and analysis they want with the ideas, and post charts if they want, preferably to the respective areas they have for that topic. This way it would leave this topic more 'clean'. If you have a question or comment on what I was pointing out you could post that in here.

Let me know if you have any thoughts on this, or anything you think would be helpful/useful. Keep in mind I am not going to just tell you all my best setups in advance, especially if I plan to trade them, as that is not 'what I do' in here, or anywhere. I want to point out things that may need some work, and might go unnoticed otherwise, or are just of interest.

Wow is Terry Laundry long-term bearish. Next week he'll be talking specifically on this chart. I look forward to that. What little he said mentioned that it will come down to survival. Agrees 100% with common sense based on the facts, in my opinion. I guess we just need to have this isanely bullish phase here before they destroy them. Assuming this comes to pass.

http://ttheory.typepad.com/files/megatband20090430.pdf

Wow. That gets my attention!

Al Kamego

That ominous double top in the INDU with subsequent trigger might imply the top is now in. We have lower highs in the NAZ, Russell, and S&P. We'll see. Everyone has been waiting for a 'dip' to get wildly long, and that is just too obvious, and has too much potential to be a sucker trap. Just some thoughts.

This is also a 'retest' of that key weekly/daily upper // I showed elsewhere, and a 'retest' and potential failure of the 200-day MA. This is a super-key spot in here.

Jim, I'm watching the DX continuous contract with the big Flat pattern forming on the daily/weekly chart to get a feel for where the current bull move in SPX will likely turn. I think it is the crucial element to watch here from an intermarket point of view that will give the timing clues.There will be diverging correlation in the early stages though.

T
=)

Yes, exactly, T, that 80 level is critical.

I wanted to point out that I have super-key areas across the board either right in here or slightly above in all the currencies (and an area here or slightly below in the dollar index), just as the ES and the other indices 'test' the most critical area I've had since the run up started. A lot of the currency lines come from the weekly and even monthly charts. I have some with convergences of five lines at one spot. This is a crucial area, in my opinion, like when many stocks show patterns at the same time.

I don't think the run up in the market was so much a run up as it was a currency manipulation down in the dollar. Whatever the Euro does right now, our markets do (Euro and other currencies up, dollar down, our market and the others up). If the markets don't turn down now, and that wasn't an intermediate top that we just saw, then we may be going a lot higher. There are areas not too far above in the currencies, and those may line up with one of the next two higher areas in the S&P that I have discussed, but after that, it starts to get to blue sky territory. It has to turn here, or at the next areas above, or it may really get moving. What I am watching for if they blow out the area right in here is a move to the next area, a reaction back to test this current area from above, and then a rocket launch. Breaking above these weekly/monthly areas is big, in my opinion.

The dollar, for example, looks like a fantastic flat ABCD W2 here, ready to launch into a monster W3 run. If it continues down, it may go into a DT ABCD, as the currencies go to the areas just overhead. After that, the deadly DT everyone talks about may be playing out. I like that every last person I hear says the dollar is toast, and that DT will send it to new lows. I'd be worried if they were bullish. Keep in mind, even though the dollar is a POS, we are talking relative values here relating to the other POS currencies. And I still don't think these other currencies are worth more (I think many are worth less) than their current relative values to the dollar. Just some thoughts.

So, anyone want to bet this is a W2 DB ABCD here around 906, and down it goes, playing out the above scenario? I didn't think so...

quote:

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Originally posted by jimkane

I wanted to point out that I have super-key areas across the board either right in here or slightly above in all the currencies (and an area here or slightly below in the dollar index), just as the ES and the other indices 'test' the most critical area I've had since the run up started. A lot of the currency lines come from the weekly and even monthly charts. I have some with convergences of five lines at one spot. This is a crucial area, in my opinion, like when many stocks show patterns at the same time.

I don't think the run up in the market was so much a run up as it was a currency manipulation down in the dollar. Whatever the Euro does right now, our markets do (Euro and other currencies up, dollar down, our market and the others up). If the markets don't turn down now, and that wasn't an intermediate top that we just saw, then we may be going a lot higher. There are areas not too far above in the currencies, and those may line up with one of the next two higher areas in the S&P that I have discussed, but after that, it starts to get to blue sky territory. It has to turn here, or at the next areas above, or it may really get moving. What I am watching for if they blow out the area right in here is a move to the next area, a reaction back to test this current area from above, and then a rocket launch. Breaking above these weekly/monthly areas is big, in my opinion.

The dollar, for example, looks like a fantastic flat ABCD W2 here, ready to launch into a monster W3 run. If it continues down, it may go into a DT ABCD, as the currencies go to the areas just overhead. After that, the deadly DT everyone talks about may be playing out. I like that every last person I hear says the dollar is toast, and that DT will send it to new lows. I'd be worried if they were bullish. Keep in mind, even though the dollar is a POS, we are talking relative values here relating to the other POS currencies. And I still don't think these other currencies are worth more (I think many are worth less) than their current relative values to the dollar. Just some thoughts.

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yes J,
totally makes sense to me.
Things are falling into place.
Did u look at the GLD setup that i showed months ago , that run off the ABCD is quite foretelling and the DX nearing its PTA for a Flat.And with equities popping up strong that would take the dollar to its decision spot.

Yes, T, and I'm busy now trying to decide what it may mean if the areas don't play out...

I think the second chart is particularly telling. I agree with the conclusion, this market is nothing more than Euro-yen carry trade on, Euro-yen carry trade off. No balance, no participation, no depth, as I discussed in my last monthly commentary, just leverage/deleverage, risk on/risk off, and that's it. Skynet is totally sentient. How long, like in the movie, until the machines decide to vaporize the useless humans?

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/tale-two-decouplings