I thought I might try something different here, and see how it goes. It's quite difficult for me to post a lot to the various topics, especially with charts, since the method I use for posting charts is very cumbersome. Some charts can take me a half hour or more to put together. Since the charts I use for posting are not my 'working' charts, this work is duplicative.

I have various ideas and thoughts here and there about different things, and if I have a 'central clearing area' where I can just put out a sentence or two, pointing to something without doing the work, the members can do what assessment and analysis they want with the ideas, and post charts if they want, preferably to the respective areas they have for that topic. This way it would leave this topic more 'clean'. If you have a question or comment on what I was pointing out you could post that in here.

Let me know if you have any thoughts on this, or anything you think would be helpful/useful. Keep in mind I am not going to just tell you all my best setups in advance, especially if I plan to trade them, as that is not 'what I do' in here, or anywhere. I want to point out things that may need some work, and might go unnoticed otherwise, or are just of interest.

quote:

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Originally posted by jimkane

The DX is now down to 3% bulls. I don't know if this is an all time record or not, but it is amazing. The recent top came in at 93% bulls. This is a major sentiment low, IMO. If the $ is going to put in a bottom here and rally, the market has to go down, or decouple the near -1.0 correlation it has had lately.

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Anybody notice anything unusual? $ way up, market way up. A flip from a near perfect -1.0 correlation to a +1.0 correlation? If those 3% bulls and dropping are going to cause a big $ rally, and the market must go up as a given, a locked guarantee, then the correlation must break. And break it did. Will it continue?

I sure wish I made a post last night I was thinking about. I really kick myself for not posting it. It's after-the-fact now, so you'll have to just believe I was going to post it (or not). I was going to say I bet the jobs report comes in better than expected, and this thing explodes to new highs, and rates explode. Notice rates have been moving dead off that sliding // area in my chart of the month. And that's what happened. Sure wish I would have posted that...

As I said, my next areas are in the 1,100's and 1,200's, but honestly, I can't see more than say a small checkback, then up it goes. This thing has a lot more to go. Maybe new all-time highs soon?

Here's a funny factoid that has been written about lately. The market cap of U.S. stocks is up about $2.7 trillion since the low. How much has come from all that cash in the money markets? $0.4 trillion. Where did the remaining $2.3 trillion come from? Hmmm, the Fed has shifted money with all its shenanigans to the banks and such via its various QE actions. How much have they done? Hmmmmmm, $2.3 trillion. Nah, it's just a coincidence, since we know all that money was supposed to go into lending and the economy, right???

Oh, BTW, insiders are still selling at a record pace, they are still distributing to beat the band...

Insider sell to buy ratio last week: 29 to 1
$ ratio sell to buy: 74.6 to 1!!!

The insiders don't seem to believe in this bull market. Normally insiders buy the base (accumulation), and sell into the new top (distribution). Now they sold the base, and sold all the way up. I don't think this has ever happened in a bull market before. Hmmmm.

I hope everyone understands the points I am trying to make, and how I am trying to make them.

Humpty Dumpty sat on a wall,
Humpty Dumpty had a great fall.
All the king's horses,
And all the king's men,
Couldn't put Humpty together again.

Ah, but there is more. You see, in their desperation, they scooped up Humpty and put him in a bag. Then they painted his picture on the bag, and gathered all the people, who at the time were very busy admiring the Emperor's new clothes, and showed them that Humpty was fine, better than ever. And they believed, and Humpty was resurrected. But there is yet another verse...

...and it is called 'Unintended Consequences'. It will be told later in its proper place and time. Stay tuned...

what will be will be...

ES at .382 fib grouping,some lines from ML set off weekly/monthly TF etc...and the DX popped up big right off its TRS 1.27 area while the broad market indices moved higher with an extension gap.Climactic conditions were in too...so many bulls.The crowd is in but the heavy hands chosse their spot to act and it has reacted so far...
took my short shot @1015 level .riding potential technical reaction...
I didn't even bother posting thoughts and charts in advance as I was ready for the turn because there is no benefit for me in doing all the groundwork for so few participants and for free...Jim I know how U may feel about that. I've not posted anything lately but just commenting...the JOSB trade was working nicely by the way, and yet nobody followed up on it. That's why Im not trying as hard as I used to to get people excited by the methodology ...oh well...

!

I hear ya, T. That's why I stopped doing all the intraday posting and the ex post facto. We know this is a key area we've been waiting for for a long time. We also know we can take our shots, read the action, and see if it gives us anything, and that's trading. Why so few are participating, I just don't know, and never will. I've seen a chat room I follow recently dwindle down to almost zero, so it isn't just here.

yeah, we all have to thank Jim for his relentless pursuit. If he, too, had the attitude of not posting due to low traffic this forum would have been closed a while back. Roofer is another one who comes to mind.
I assume there are a few watchers, though, just not a lot of people posting.

I think the second chart is particularly telling. I agree with the conclusion, this market is nothing more than Euro-yen carry trade on, Euro-yen carry trade off. No balance, no participation, no depth, as I discussed in my last monthly commentary, just leverage/deleverage, risk on/risk off, and that's it. Skynet is totally sentient. How long, like in the movie, until the machines decide to vaporize the useless humans?

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/tale-two-decouplings