I thought I might try something different here, and see how it goes. It's quite difficult for me to post a lot to the various topics, especially with charts, since the method I use for posting charts is very cumbersome. Some charts can take me a half hour or more to put together. Since the charts I use for posting are not my 'working' charts, this work is duplicative.

I have various ideas and thoughts here and there about different things, and if I have a 'central clearing area' where I can just put out a sentence or two, pointing to something without doing the work, the members can do what assessment and analysis they want with the ideas, and post charts if they want, preferably to the respective areas they have for that topic. This way it would leave this topic more 'clean'. If you have a question or comment on what I was pointing out you could post that in here.

Let me know if you have any thoughts on this, or anything you think would be helpful/useful. Keep in mind I am not going to just tell you all my best setups in advance, especially if I plan to trade them, as that is not 'what I do' in here, or anywhere. I want to point out things that may need some work, and might go unnoticed otherwise, or are just of interest.

But there is no inflation...

How would you like to be living on social security with its CPI adjusted rates, or a pension fund that has no increases, not to even consider neither may fulfill their obligations with the money you and I paid in... How are many retired older people handling the massive increase in expenses and no increase in income? I'm not one of those that says an old person who paid their entire life into social security and now lives on well under $1000 a month should have known better, and saved more. If we weren't getting F#*$ed in the @#% we wouldn't need to even discuss that question. Stop stealing, in one form or another, approximatley 91% of our work and efforts and then stealing the pool of money we are forced to put in to, and saying the obligations were 'overpromised', and we'd all do fine.

Don't forget: There is also no global warming......

I guess if you hear it enough they think you'll believe it?

It's always been a rigged game. I don't even want to get into it or I'll have steam come out of my ears and nostrils.

So, the issue with posting charts has been resolved, and it mostly stemmed from my not seeing the charts were actually Schiff charts without the usual lines (on Ensign they call it the perimeter), and they then look like adjusted sets. Also, an inside set that has the line going back is actually an adjusted set as well as an inside set (an inside set is one type of adjusted set), but if the line goes back it gets easy to figure out the adjusting concept, hence my worries. Unfortunately, Ensign does have an inside tool, and you can't stop the 'handle' at the AB line, so you have to extend it. Point is, nothing was posted intentionally, and this has all been resolved.

Well, with the selling today, the INDU close below the August intraday low, and INTC disappointing and dropping the futures substantially, I'd really be on the watch for a surprise Fed cut. If they follow through to the downside tomorrow I'd be amazed if they didn't act. If not, the next most likely time, in my opinion, is like last time, options expiration Friday, pre-open, to devastate as many shorts as possible. Like the 'shorts' have anything to do with all the trouble in the economy. So, be watchful for this, in case.

OK, time to test if anyone reads this thread. We need a post showing the key weekly set on the cash INDU going back all the way to the start of the bull in '02-'03. It's an adjusted set, and if you 'lock' off the recent top and it hits right here, you have the right one. I think the first crucial test for the INDU is right here. A bounce and roll is what I consider most probable, but if it can't bounce and takes this out, that's a big clue. M? You're a master of those weekly adjusted set charts.

Nope, I guess no one reads this...

OK, I'll call this post 'Anatomy of a speculative play'. Sometimes I think speculation instead of trading. I got to thinking that a bounce is likely in here, and it is very possible Uncle Ben may pull a surprise before the open tomorrow, as I mentioned, on option expiration, like last time. Now, almost all the news has been bad, and if a bounce is imminent, any good news will be seized upon. So, what have they been playing up? IBM earnings after the bell. I got to thinking that if I wanted a speculative play I could look at IBM calls near the close, when IBM was just over 100, like at the money calls.

Now, two things come to mind. The options can be wildly overpriced at times like this, and buying the day before expiration is not a particularly good time, because there tends to be a drop in price, usually on Monday. If the play requires more time, there can be some loss just because of the timing.

This is not a trading play, it's a speculation, and is based on the thought that IBM would likely give good news, and that the odds are there that the Fed may act. It would be constructed such that the full loss of the option price would be the stop, in other words, the maximum risk amount determines the number of option contracts. This is different than a usual option play, with a typical stop.

Now, since this is after the fact, and IBM did rocket up on earnings news about like I expected, take all this discussion with a grain of salt. I just wanted to show how a speculative play might be constructed, and how it is not a trading play. It takes other factors into account that are 'speculative'. It will be curious to see what does happen tomorrow.

OK I will give it a try !





Mats

I think the second chart is particularly telling. I agree with the conclusion, this market is nothing more than Euro-yen carry trade on, Euro-yen carry trade off. No balance, no participation, no depth, as I discussed in my last monthly commentary, just leverage/deleverage, risk on/risk off, and that's it. Skynet is totally sentient. How long, like in the movie, until the machines decide to vaporize the useless humans?

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/tale-two-decouplings