I thought I might try something different here, and see how it goes. It's quite difficult for me to post a lot to the various topics, especially with charts, since the method I use for posting charts is very cumbersome. Some charts can take me a half hour or more to put together. Since the charts I use for posting are not my 'working' charts, this work is duplicative.

I have various ideas and thoughts here and there about different things, and if I have a 'central clearing area' where I can just put out a sentence or two, pointing to something without doing the work, the members can do what assessment and analysis they want with the ideas, and post charts if they want, preferably to the respective areas they have for that topic. This way it would leave this topic more 'clean'. If you have a question or comment on what I was pointing out you could post that in here.

Let me know if you have any thoughts on this, or anything you think would be helpful/useful. Keep in mind I am not going to just tell you all my best setups in advance, especially if I plan to trade them, as that is not 'what I do' in here, or anywhere. I want to point out things that may need some work, and might go unnoticed otherwise, or are just of interest.

gd article Jim notice now this credit crisis is starting to take hold the idea that one currnecy fits all is also has started to be ripped to shreds, I wonder what the politicians will do when they are found out for all the lies they sold the Euro currency on as this crisis but them under even more strain that their economies wont be able to take.

This one has some interesting insight on oil. I tend to agree totally with this outlook. Focus on the part about how we are no longer pursuing alternatives now that the economy is in shambles. And once the economy recovers, and we are facing hyper-inflation, oil will be in short supply. Talk about a perfect storm...

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/position-yourself-now-300-barrel/story.aspx?guid=%7B9C42CE1C%2DB7C8%2D4C22%2D8907%2D3A8D60BE1F0B%7D

Anyone notice those Trannies? Down almost 7% today. Wow, are they getting smoked, the leader on the way down. Look at that chart.

So, here's a fun calculation. AIG lost what this last quarter, just over $61 billion, the largest one quarter loss of any publically traded company in history, anywhere on earth. So, I mentioned to my better half I couldn't get rid of $61 billion in one quarter if I had a gasoline truck and a crate of matches. She said just dump it out the window. So, I decided to calculate how long that would take. I know, dump it by the boxload. We'll get to that. If I threw out a $100 bill once per second, and I never ate, slept, or used the bathroom, how long would it take me to get rid of that $61 billion? Just about twenty years. Twenty years!

Let's do it by the boxload. That would work, it turns out. You only have to move about, give or take, eighty of those $100 bills per second to do it in a quarter. Let's get practical. Let's say you are really strong, with good endurance. You work eight hours a day, five days a week. You can lift a box, move it to the window, shove it out, pause to rest a few seconds, and start again. Assuming anyone could keep this up eight hours a day, you could do a box say every ten seconds. So, how many bills per box to wrap this up in one quarter? You'd need about $320K per box, or 3,200 bills. That's actually quite feasible. That's only 32 stacks of 100 in each stack, with the nice little bands around them.

Let's see, though, fair is fair, I could get more than 32 stacks in a box and lift it, but on the other hand, I should have to put them in the box myself, it isn't fair to have an assistant load up for me, or what's the point of this exercise (I know, there is no real point, but I'm a math geek, so this is actually fun for me). So, I say it's a wash, the time it takes me to load up, I can only do the 32 stacks. I could do more, if I could lift it over and over eight hours a day without a break, but it wouldn't increase the efficiency that much.

So, my conclusion? If I worked full time throwing out boxes of $100 bills non-stop for an entire quarter, I could, in fact, lose that $61 billion. Hence, I guess it isn't so surprising they could lose all that. Now, imagine they had teams of people throwing out that money. See, it may actually be that they were quite conservative, and should be rewarded for not losing a lot more. That's my viewpoint. Let's reward them with a big party paid for by us taxpayers :-)

Ha! Too funny. I want you to send this to every newspaper. Bet you a bunch are going to print it. What do you think, Jim?

You think so?

I do, yes. You can probably send it in anonymously if you prefer.

So, I just heard Doug Kass, one of the biggest short sellers in the world, if not the biggest from what I've heard, 'officially' say that the yearly low in the S&P will come in the next 2-3 days. Wow, what a statement. Another one coming in on that astrological March low call. That call is, I think, Thursday through Monday. And he may look great for some time to come, maybe even six months, if we get the big bear market rally. Perhaps he will be right in total, if we rally for six months, then head back down, that wouldn't start until say September, and may still be well above the low at year end, before a new low is set. Who knows. It sure would be nuts to see a big short seller call the low of the year within a day or two, though.

Well, for those masochists that like articles on the crisis, especially the next key area of Europe, here's a killer. I think it is dead on, it's what I've been saying lately, but I'm sure hoping I'll be 'wrong'. As I mentioned before, if you bet the sun will blow up and you are right, what do you win?

http://www.investorsinsight.com/blogs/john_mauldins_outside_the_box/archive/2009/03/02/europe-on-the-ropes.aspx

As I've said, I can't imagine the Euro won't go to par with the buck, the only question I have is will it hold up there? Hey, maybe it goes no lower than here, maybe the buck reverses back down, but I don't see it. I think the buck was ahead of the rest in pricing all this in, when the world thought it was almost all just our problem. As we see just how worldwide it is, the rest of the currencies would have to come way down, that is, the buck go up relative to them, as they reprice to reflect what was priced into the buck. And all are inflating like mad, so gold would then keep going up and up and up, against all currencies. It may not play out this way, but I can't imagine any other way it could go. If all this causes a loss of confidence in treasuries of major countries, this thing will feed on itself like piranhas on a dead cow.

I think the second chart is particularly telling. I agree with the conclusion, this market is nothing more than Euro-yen carry trade on, Euro-yen carry trade off. No balance, no participation, no depth, as I discussed in my last monthly commentary, just leverage/deleverage, risk on/risk off, and that's it. Skynet is totally sentient. How long, like in the movie, until the machines decide to vaporize the useless humans?

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/tale-two-decouplings