I thought I might try something different here, and see how it goes. It's quite difficult for me to post a lot to the various topics, especially with charts, since the method I use for posting charts is very cumbersome. Some charts can take me a half hour or more to put together. Since the charts I use for posting are not my 'working' charts, this work is duplicative.

I have various ideas and thoughts here and there about different things, and if I have a 'central clearing area' where I can just put out a sentence or two, pointing to something without doing the work, the members can do what assessment and analysis they want with the ideas, and post charts if they want, preferably to the respective areas they have for that topic. This way it would leave this topic more 'clean'. If you have a question or comment on what I was pointing out you could post that in here.

Let me know if you have any thoughts on this, or anything you think would be helpful/useful. Keep in mind I am not going to just tell you all my best setups in advance, especially if I plan to trade them, as that is not 'what I do' in here, or anywhere. I want to point out things that may need some work, and might go unnoticed otherwise, or are just of interest.

I agree that you only want to trade the setups, and at best the fundamental assessment can be a small guide at times like when the bull topped out after being the longest running cyclical bull in history. Knowing that helped me accept the end was likely very near. And yes, all of what was in the articles is very well known, and probably all of it way in advance of when we knew it. Yet I still saw big players and big corporations make unprecedented mistakes and show a huge denial of the reality, so I'm not all that convinced what they know now is totally priced in to the market. I would really be shocked if this doesn't continue to unfold in a negative way with a lot more market downside, but as you point out every time I post a link like this, it really is 99.99% irrelevent to my trading, which is going to be based on the setups, and that's essentially it. I mostly post those so people can have a balanced view different than rah-rah TV, and can assess if they feel their money is safe in banks, money markets, brokers, the U.S. dollar, etc., and if they should be looking at some diversification, some spreading out of assets, some protective measures, and so on. That doesn't have much to do with trading per se, but is something I'd like people to think about for their own potential well being.

As far as your buddies working seven days a week in the worst housing city, wow, you have two very positive stories there. All the people I know, from the one top-rated real estate broker in one of the top cities in the U.S., who made so much money a few years ago in selling middle class homes I thought it was literally obscene and now is working another job to barely stay alive, to the lending agents the broker worked with, to the endless building related workers I know who can't get hardly any work now, well, I'm just seeing the totally opposite side as far as the people I know. Everyone I know is struggling very, very hard right now. And you are in one of the worst housing cities out there, and the people you know are really prospering. I wonder if there is a pattern, though. I am referring to one of the top three cities in the U.S. housing market, and you are referring to one of the worst. So, are the worst starting to bounce, and the best just getting started to the downside, having held on the longest?

Seems like certain parts of the country are still somewhat unaffected by the economic woes that many are dealing with. I recently spent a couple of weeks in Nevada (LV to be specific) and people are scrambling to rent out houses, most aren't even trying to sell them anymore. You can rent a 4 bed 2 bathroom 2000sqft. house in a nice neighborhood for $1200... Houses that used to sell for 400-500k now go for 50% less. Most realtors are out of business...casinos laying people off...
I recently sold my ac to a woman from FL who moved her entire family up to New York after she got laid off by her employer of 20 years..she said there just aren't any jobs down there...

On the flipside, the northeast still seems fairly unaffected. Many companies hiring as usual, business still great for a lot of people I know, rents haven't budged...

So until it affects everyone (which I think it will) the demographics are a major factor.
The northeast is were most of the money, best education and important 'money-making' industries are..
Once it gets to them, then you know the time has come....

This is a repost from another topic, so it doesn't 'get lost'. I thought I was posting in here, and then I realized I wasn't...

Here's a little factoid I thought was so curious I'd post it. In all my years studying the market I didn't know this, and all the market people I know that I mentioned it to didn't know it either, even one guy whose 'specialty' is market history.

How many 300+ point days were there in the '00-'02/'03 bear market? 12
How many 300+ point days have we had so far in this '07-'08 bear market? 6
Now, the fun part. How many 300+ point days did we have in the '02/'03-'07 bull market, which was the longest running cyclical bull in history? You figure 30? 40? 20? Nope, zero. Zip, nada, none, a big fat horse collar.

You see, 300+ up days in the INDU is a bear market and recession phenomenon, not a bull market one. So, think twice when we have a monster up day and they immediately say on TV that the bear is dead, long live the bull. When I'm hoping for more bear action, I root for 300+ up days, because I know the statistics.

I first read about this on John Maudlin's blog, to give him credit. I'm not sure if he did the workup himself, or found it elsewhere.

Since I'm on the subject in here lately, here's another link, only for those who want to look at negative fundamentals. If you aren't interested in that, skip this. It's not meant as a reflection of how I would do any trading, only to aid in considerations with regard to personal finances. For example, if I see institutions I use being discussed, I want to weigh that into my decision if I want to keep doing business with them.

http://www.investorsinsight.com/blogs/john_mauldins_outside_the_box/archive/2008/08/25/dead-men-walking.aspx

Jim, right you are on the 'dead men walking' article. I am in the process of moving some money around now. I use Bankrate.com as my source for sound financial institutions. Brokered CD's are ok, but you
will not receive interest on that cd during the time that that bank you have the cd goes under to the time the FDIC gives you your money. That time window can take 3 months or more at times. It is also my understanding from a good banking source (although I have not seen this in writing), is that the FDIC "can" take up to 99 years to cover our
"covered" funds. But what the heck, with the current gurus in charge, esp Paulson, I know we are in good hands. <g>
jan

Wow, the 10-year is off three full points from Friday's high on this great FNM/FRE news (notice the ABCD in the rates chart that it is reacting off of). Dollar ain't too happy, either. But the index futures are on fire. Still trying to understand why the market loves this...

My interpretation would be that they now all think Fannie and Freddie are in safe hands and that a collapse has been averted.

Yep, based on Asia and Australia the financials look to pop 10%-15% tomorrow, and I wouldn't be surprised if it was more. My inclination, devoid of any news or other contact, would be to sell all I held in a panic. Good thing I only focus on setups and not logic or common sense...

Don't forget, the housing crisis is now officially over...

Good article:
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/09/07/business/07ltcm.html?8dpc

I think the second chart is particularly telling. I agree with the conclusion, this market is nothing more than Euro-yen carry trade on, Euro-yen carry trade off. No balance, no participation, no depth, as I discussed in my last monthly commentary, just leverage/deleverage, risk on/risk off, and that's it. Skynet is totally sentient. How long, like in the movie, until the machines decide to vaporize the useless humans?

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/tale-two-decouplings