I thought I might try something different here, and see how it goes. It's quite difficult for me to post a lot to the various topics, especially with charts, since the method I use for posting charts is very cumbersome. Some charts can take me a half hour or more to put together. Since the charts I use for posting are not my 'working' charts, this work is duplicative.

I have various ideas and thoughts here and there about different things, and if I have a 'central clearing area' where I can just put out a sentence or two, pointing to something without doing the work, the members can do what assessment and analysis they want with the ideas, and post charts if they want, preferably to the respective areas they have for that topic. This way it would leave this topic more 'clean'. If you have a question or comment on what I was pointing out you could post that in here.

Let me know if you have any thoughts on this, or anything you think would be helpful/useful. Keep in mind I am not going to just tell you all my best setups in advance, especially if I plan to trade them, as that is not 'what I do' in here, or anywhere. I want to point out things that may need some work, and might go unnoticed otherwise, or are just of interest.

Now, I fully believe this market will go to new all-time highs and way beyond, and won't even correct more than maybe two points in doing so (well, maybe three points if it has a bad day, but I don't see how it can have a bad day...), but if I were looking for signs of a top, and I tried to come up with one that said 'That's it. It's done!' I couldn't have come up with one as good as the news item we all saw today. Pimp-co is now getting into equities. You understand they have over $756 billion under management as of the end of the first quarter of this year. And they didn't get into equities in March '00, and they didn't get into them in Oct '08, but they feel the opportunity is so good right now they must. Hmmm, and they are in bed with the government, you think they know something? Or is this the sign the bull is done? I think history is being made on this very day, one way or another. I honestly think we will see DOW 20,000 very soon, maybe even 30,000. Of course the dollar won't be worth much and you'll need a wheelbarrow to get a loaf of bread, but the market will be a lot higher, and people will be happy.

So, AMZN jumps up over +23 today on a big down day, taking out not only the Oct '07 high, but also the dot.com bubble bull high from '99, to hit a new all-time. Man, this 'bull market' is strong.

And that little pop increases Jeff Bezos' net worth a bit over $2 billion. For one pop.

Just a fun little comment here. Let's see how it plays out. CIT did go ahead and file BK this weekend. In the agreement, the common and preferred shareholders are wiped out. Now, this is not one of those where they say there is nothing left for them, so they are wiped out. The written, submitted agreement is that the common and preferred shares are cancelled upon emergence. Can't get more worthless than that. Now, here's my bet. I get the shares are not trading at zero tomorrow, not even close. In fact, I will honestly be surprised if they are not trading up. I have seen this time and again with bankruptcies. I have no idea why. Some say shorts must cover, although I have no idea why if the stock is to be cancelled. That's part one.

Part two is, the talk is the futures will open down huge today, and the market will be crushed tomorrow. I bet the futures open up. Why? Well, it would make no sense for them to open up, so I suspect they will then do just that. Next, any time there is an event that might rattle the market, the gov likes to come in big to change the attitude right away. Finally, many may argue for a relief rally because 'the worst is now out' with respect to that, there are no unknowns. Anyway, I'm looking for a nice ramp with CIT stock way up tomorrow. So, maybe Cramer will be right when he made his recent call about loading up on CIT common stock. Wouldn't that be an ironic kick in the you know whats...

And the futures start down a little, and then went positive. So much for getting killed, eh? Now we just need to see CIT trade up tomorrow :-)

Futures starting to move up nicely. Couldn't be any other way after such a monstrous bankruptcy from such a critical institution as CIT :-)

Futures up 5.25, 9.75 off the low. Hmmm, here's my surprised look.

Hey, we all know all that is going on is a monster case of 'kick the can down the road'. Systemic risk has risen, not fallen, in my opinion. Once this all comes out, and they can only hold it so long, we will see 'W3', or the 'extended C wave' that many like to call it. My point is, though, the lexicon now has a new name for this game of can kicking, one which I really like: 'Extend and pretend'. It's all too comical, and too sick. I know I sound like a broken record, but I truly feel when this thing goes, it will far, far exceed the worst we could possibly fathom. I wish it weren't so, but I'm afraid it is. Start thinking about how you can prepare.

So, folks, do we have M's long awited trigger? Is Dubai the card at the bottom of the house of cards that takes the whole thing down? Is the biggest drop in European exchanges in seven months the start of something? Or do they sweep this under the rug somehow, roll the debt out, and 'extend and pretend' some more?

Here's the thing. One can say they will 'extend and pretend' indefinitely, but they all have a tiger by the tail. This thing, this possible $1.4 quadrillion in derivatives, this is way, way, way beyond what they can control. They can monetize and QE and horse around with several trillion, maybe even tens of trillions. $1.4 quadrillion is 1,400 trillion. If anything starts a chain reaction with that it would be like a nuclear reaction once started, and way beyond anything they could handle.

You all recall how sometimes they announce some news and something craters, like the news caused it. It was really because it was at a key area, ready to crater. The news was the lever to tip it, the catalyst. Recall how I said Pimp-co announcing they are getting into stocks very likely could mark the top? The announcement came at a time where it was already primed for a top. So, Dubai unto itelf, although it is truly a canary in the coal mine to me, would be just the lever, the catalyst, for the tipping point to roll it over. It's just one domino, sitting in front of a lot of lined up dominos.

So, do they come in like gangbusters here to support this and run it up so the fear doesn't take hold and we see some real selling? Keep in mind, who owns all this stock that has run this up? You and me? Retired and near retiring investors? No, people who shorted the dollar and plowed it into stocks, heavy on 'emerging markets'. Really great value plays. If there is any flight to dollar safety that could force that dollar carry trade to unwind, and the selling in stocks could be profound.

I'm not saying this will happen, I'm saying that the main discussion in here has been this will go down when a market shock event happens, some exogenous event. And we live in a world just filled with possibilities, given the inherently unstable nature of the system at this point. It seems not like a matter of if, but when. Has the when started, or do we live another day to 'extend and pretend'? Is this a warning shot across the bow?

As always, Zero Hedge is a key source to keep up on this. Trust me, this Dubai thing is scary stuff.

Yes Jim I've been thinking about this for the
last couple of days and it could really be the
start of something. Pile another on top of this
and the house of cards is in real jeopardy.
When it happens it'll be like an avalanche.
As for now they might just shrug it off as an isolated
issue and call it a long overdue correction and find reason
to buy some more. Dubai of course is not an oil country but
the belief was always that they'd be bailed out by it's neighbors.
We'll see.....

I think the second chart is particularly telling. I agree with the conclusion, this market is nothing more than Euro-yen carry trade on, Euro-yen carry trade off. No balance, no participation, no depth, as I discussed in my last monthly commentary, just leverage/deleverage, risk on/risk off, and that's it. Skynet is totally sentient. How long, like in the movie, until the machines decide to vaporize the useless humans?

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/tale-two-decouplings