I thought I might try something different here, and see how it goes. It's quite difficult for me to post a lot to the various topics, especially with charts, since the method I use for posting charts is very cumbersome. Some charts can take me a half hour or more to put together. Since the charts I use for posting are not my 'working' charts, this work is duplicative.

I have various ideas and thoughts here and there about different things, and if I have a 'central clearing area' where I can just put out a sentence or two, pointing to something without doing the work, the members can do what assessment and analysis they want with the ideas, and post charts if they want, preferably to the respective areas they have for that topic. This way it would leave this topic more 'clean'. If you have a question or comment on what I was pointing out you could post that in here.

Let me know if you have any thoughts on this, or anything you think would be helpful/useful. Keep in mind I am not going to just tell you all my best setups in advance, especially if I plan to trade them, as that is not 'what I do' in here, or anywhere. I want to point out things that may need some work, and might go unnoticed otherwise, or are just of interest.

And hence the virtue of patience, and giving things time. Wow.

I swear I was going to include the following in the last post. I was headed for bed, the computer shut down already, when I remembered that I forgot to add: 'This looks like if it is to go down it would take some news event, and with GE reporting tomorrow before the bell, that could be it, but I wouldn't expect GE to miss, so we'll see.' Really, I swear I was going to add that. Darn, it would have been cool if I did.

Today gets the highest rating I have seen for the Russell mini following the methodology intraday, like the 3-min chart, for example. At least four setups, all just about dead on the numbers and lines, with super clean patterns in at least two. Just amazing to me. Do the work, it's something to see.

Just a thought. Everyone is now wildly bullish again, even more than before. Statements that the credit crunch, the sup-prime, housing, the worst is over. And now we have another one of those monster short-covering rallies. The VIX, which never popped up much at all on all that selling, has now broken down to new yearly lows. To me, that's lack of fear, and outright complacency. Here's the point, though. There are clear, obvious areas across the board right in here. SP, INDU, Comp. The Russell is the only one that is a bit harder to find equivalent areas, but it does have quite a trendline in this area. The point is, although I don't want to fight anything powerful to the upside, I want to be aware of what it in front of me, and be ready for that possibility. Given the Beige Book is due out in two hours, and that we have MER and C on deck for earnings, well, I can see how sentiment might change. I just wanted to point this out if anyone wants to do the work.

Hmmm, GOOG is up about 85 in the aftermarket. No, not 8.50, 85...

So if C appeases with a lower than forecast loss (although no one seems to have a clue what kind of loss to estimate) are we off to 1470?

It seems so funny to me how few charts and posts there are in here lately, and how fantastic the market has been moving. Sure wish I understood the dynamics of that better.

On another note, China lowered the transaction tax on stocks back to what it was when they raised it to 'cool off' the market as it was going nuts. The market over there is up about 20% in well under two full trading days. 20%!!! In under two days! That would be like 2,500 DOW points in under two days. Imagine that. I wonder how much market cap that added to the Chinese stock market just because people pay less tax now on transactions. Sometimes I just wonder what the hell is going on...

Well, I have to admit, the bullish sentiment is so thick I am getting caught up in it. I'm ready to rah-rah this thing. Lemme on TV, I want to talk bullish. This market is a MONSTER. It can't be stopped. The bear is dead. Oops, sorry, I'm getting so caught up in this...

Don't get me wrong, my bias for trading is strongly towards the long side right now because it is going up, end of story. But keep in mind those two key overhead SP areas, which are now a bit lower because the lines are sloping down. The first is coming up at just over 1,400, and the next, and more likely area in my opinion, is now at around 1,460 or so (perhaps a bit lower), depending on when it would get there.

It's hard for me to even get my mind around the short side now because the sentiment and hype is so bullish, hence my little skit. I will wait and see how it acts and what unfolds, but I don't want to get so caught up that I ignore what is setting up. I just can't imagine we are back in a bull market with conditions as they are, but we have entered a new era of unprecedented market manipulation, in my opinion, and it is possible they can worsen the eventual outcome by delaying the inevitable, especially until after the election, by continuing the manipulation. Just a thought.

Well, since no one wants to talk much about the market, and we are down to one or two posters with charts (which I am grateful for, so please keep posting), I'll go off topic and mention my latest conspiracy theory.

I'm a little worried to mention this, since I don't want any men in black to show up at my door and tell me to stop running my mouth off :-)

OK, we have this monster food run up. Worldwide there are riots, and outcries about this. I saw a guy from India saying it is immoral to burn food up for fuel as people starve. More and more are speaking out how the rise is caused by the use of food and land for biofuels, and this must stop. Hmmm, I got to thinking. Would these people be saying this if food prices had stayed 'low'? Would things be status quo if prices weren't rising? I doubt we'd hear a word out of anyone if prices weren't spiraling out of control, with promises of a lot higher rises to come.

Here's what hit me. The calls are now out to stop biofuel production from food. Stop the use of land for production of anything for biofuels because that land must be used for food. It's the right thing to do. The humane and moral thing to do. But alas, the biofuel, as much as many play it down, is a threat to big oil. Even the middle eastern countries jumped right up with public statements when we started talking big about biofuels, saying it threatened to run oil up catastrophically, and create potential violent conflicts in the future. Sounds like they genuinely felt threatened.

So, do you see it yet? The major oil producing countries, in conjunction with the big oil and multinational companies, run the price of food up to the sky, which, given the money they have and what is at stake for them, could do with a tiny fraction of their money, and the results are predictable, exactly what is happening, and starting to happen, would happen. And biofuels will go the way of the dinosaurs, at least for now. Threat dealt with, quite effectively. Just a thought.

If you think this is unlikely, start doing some studying on what has been going on with genetically modified foods, and the big companies, and you'll think what I just said is tame.

Yeah, I can't think about this stuff anymore. The greed is so overwhelming that they have no qualms starving people to death just to get their profit machinery going. It's just collateral damage.
I like to think that I am not from this world....just got off at the wrong stop....

quote:

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Originally posted by jimkane

...But keep in mind those two key overhead SP areas, which are now a bit lower because the lines are sloping down. The first is coming up at just over 1,400...

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Well, we're at the first area, on a Friday as the close approaches. No hint whatsoever yet that they want to do anything but buy. On the other hand, we are having a little fun with an Iranian ship in the strait there. Without news, I can't see this stopping, as the momentum is building. But, I'm watching this area very, very closely, I'll tell you that, news or no news.

I think the second chart is particularly telling. I agree with the conclusion, this market is nothing more than Euro-yen carry trade on, Euro-yen carry trade off. No balance, no participation, no depth, as I discussed in my last monthly commentary, just leverage/deleverage, risk on/risk off, and that's it. Skynet is totally sentient. How long, like in the movie, until the machines decide to vaporize the useless humans?

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/tale-two-decouplings